Lump Sum or Scale In? How to Start Copying a Strategy
Watch: Lump Sum or Scale In? How to Start
A short video deep dive on this topic. Prefer to read? The full post is below.
Three Ways to Start
Every new copier faces the same question: put the full amount in today, or build the position over time? There is no single right answer. Each approach trades some expected return for some comfort, and the numbers below show how big that trade is.
- All at once
- Invest the full amount on day one.
- In equal steps
- Split the amount into 3, 6 or 12 parts and add one each month. This is called dollar-cost averaging.
- Wait for a dip
- Keep some or all of the money in cash and invest when the strategy falls a set percentage from its highest point.
Lump Sum vs Scaling In: What 33 Years of Data Show
We treated every month from January 1993 to September 2023 as a possible start date, 369 in total. Each start invests $10,000 in the S&P 500 and is followed for three years. Returns are total return. Cash waiting to be invested earns nothing in this test. Interest on cash would narrow the gaps slightly.
The chart below shows the second column at a glance. Every bar sits below 50%, so every alternative lost to investing all at once in most start months.
Investing all at once beat a six-month plan in about 7 of 10 start months. The typical cost of the six-month plan was 3.2% of the starting amount over three years. The reason is simple: the S&P 500 rose in most months, so money left waiting usually missed gains.
What Staging Buys You
Staging works like insurance against bad timing. In a typical start month, the lowest point in year one was $9,517 for all at once and $9,784 with twelve monthly steps. A painful start feels much smaller when only part of the money is invested.
It has limits. The worst start in the sample was October 2007. All at once fell to $4,544 at the low. Twelve monthly steps still fell to $5,018, because the last step went in during September 2008, before the March 2009 low. Staging softens a crash. It does not avoid one.
The Problem With Waiting for a Dip
Waiting for a fall sounds disciplined. In the data it ran into three problems:
- The fall often comes late. A 10% fall from the high came within 12 months in only 56% of start months, after a median wait of 8 months. A 20% fall came within three years in only 42%.
- It often comes from a higher level. In 57% of cases, the price at the 10% dip was still above the price on the start date.
- Cash can sit for years. With a 20% rule and no deadline, 58% of start months were still fully in cash after three years.
Our own record shows the same effect. The chart below follows $10,000 invested in AlphaWizzard on 18 December 2025, the first day of our daily copier series. A copier who waited for a 10% fall got one in early July 2026. By then the portfolio stood about 20% above its December level, and even the July low was about 12% above it.
A 20% rule would still be waiting today. The deepest fall since inception was -19.1%. Over the same period the strategy returned +21.0%, against +12.6% for the S&P 500 (our calculation, as of 23 October 2026).
How Our Strategy Changes the Picture
Two features of AlphaWizzard matter for this decision.
It swings more than the index. Since inception, annualised volatility has been 24.1%, against 12.8% for the S&P 500. Bigger swings make a bad start more painful. That strengthens the case for steps if an early loss would make you stop. In a normal 5 to 10% pullback, an initial hit is expected before the risk system adapts.
Part of the portfolio already sits in cash. Every night, the system recalculates more than 20 risk indicators across markets and sets our equity exposure for the next day. On 26 October 2026, exposure was 55% (Cruising mode). If you choose to copy, eToro technically replicates our trades proportionally into your own account, so a new copy holds that same cash share.
The overlay's job is to know when to accelerate and when to brake for the whole portfolio. It does not forecast prices, and it does not pick your start date. The September 2026 monthly review shows how exposure moved most recently.
How to Scale In on eToro: Step by Step
- 1Write the plan first. Set the total amount, the number of steps and the dates. For a dip rule, set the size of the fall, measure it from the strategy's highest point, and add a deadline. A written rule keeps the decision data-driven, not gut-driven.
- 2Start the copy with the first step. The minimum is $1,500. Keep "Copy open trades" ticked so your account holds the current positions immediately.
- 3Add later steps through "Add funds". Choose to add the funds to open positions. Otherwise the new money only goes into new trades.
- 4Keep each step meaningful. With 16 holdings at 55% exposure, a $500 step adds about $17 per position. Every addition opens trades and pays the spread.
- 5Check your copy stop-loss after each addition. eToro recalculates it when the copied amount changes.
- 6Stick to the dates. If the market falls during the plan, the next step buys at lower prices. That is the plan working as intended.
The account setup itself is covered in How to Copy a US Large-Cap Portfolio. You stay in control of your own account at all times, and you can change the amount or stop copying whenever you choose. More on where the money sits is in our FAQ.
After the First Amount: Monthly Contributions
Everything above is about money you already have today. Most investors also add new money from their income over the years. That habit usually matters far more than how the first amount went in.
A monthly contribution from income is new money, so nothing waits in cash. The study above points the same way: invest each contribution when it arrives rather than holding it back for a dip.
The difference grows with time. At an illustrative 10% per year, close to the S&P 500's long-run average, $10,000 invested once grows to about $198,000 in 30 years. Add $500 every month and the same start reaches about $1,330,000. Compare that with the entry choice, which moved the three-year result by about 3% of the starting amount. Long-Term Investing: How Compounding Wins shows the full calculation. These figures illustrate compounding and are not a forecast.
On eToro, each contribution goes in the same way as a planned step: through "Add funds", added to open positions.
Which Approach Fits You
- Long horizon, steady nerves
- All at once. It came out ahead in most start months.
- An early loss would make you quit
- 3 to 6 monthly steps. You give up a little return for a much smaller first-year low.
- You want a dip rule
- Half now, half on a 10% fall, with a 12-month deadline.
- You plan to wait for a crash
- Reconsider. Over three years, the idle cash usually cost more than the dip saved.
“The best entry plan is the one you will still follow after the first bad month.”
Related reading: Why Staying Calm in a Crisis Is Your Biggest Edge covers what to do when a fall arrives mid-plan.
*This guide is provided for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. The S&P 500 study uses historical index data and our own calculation; the live figures are past performance. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk.*
Important: Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk. CFDs are complex instruments. 61% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with eToro.
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