Monthly Review: September 2026

Watch: September 2026 Review

Our September 2026 review in video form: the performance, the biggest movers, the risk overlay, and what comes next. Prefer to read? The full written review is below.

Performance Snapshot

AlphaWizzard returned +2.5% in September 2026 against -0.3% for the S&P 500, producing +2.8 percentage points of outperformance in a month when the index finished in the red. Year-to-date the strategy stands at +14.8% versus +12.8% for the S&P 500, and +24.2% since inception.

The F1 Dashboard

Equity exposure was held at 81% throughout the entire month, with the strategy running in Accelerating mode the whole period. See Pillar 3: Risk Overlay in Action below for the full daily journey.

What Happened in Markets

September was a month of violent dispersion beneath a quiet index headline. The S&P 500 slipped -0.3% on the month, closing at 7,652, while the Dow fell 4.3% to 50,908. Technology (XLK) was the only positive S&P sector, up roughly 5%. Consumer Staples fell about 5%, Utilities and Consumer Discretionary about 6%, and Financials, Materials and REITs about 7%. The S&P 500 financials index fell 6.3%, its worst month since March 2023, with Blackstone -21% and BlackRock -8%. In other words, a majority of index constituents declined even as the headline number looked merely flat.

The macro backdrop turned decisively hawkish. August consumer price inflation, released September 11, came in at +0.4% on the month and +3.4% on the year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose +0.3% on the month, a tenth above consensus. That pushed the odds of a Fed hike to nearly 90%. The FOMC delivered on September 15–16, raising the target range 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12-0 vote, the first hike since 2023. Banks lifted the prime rate to 7.00% effective September 17. Chair Warsh said inflation had been "too high ... for too long" and that the Committee's confidence standard "has not been satisfied." The median dot, the midpoint of policymakers' own rate projections, implies one more 25 basis point hike to finish 2026 at 4.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields hit a near two-decade high late in the month. Only NY Fed President Williams' September 29 suggestion that the Fed could wait until December took some pressure off. The Conference Board consumer confidence index then fell 6.7 points to 81.9 against expectations of a rise to 89, adding to the late-month risk-off tone.

Geopolitics supplied the fuel. The US–Iran standoff dominated, with Brent holding near $105 and spiking 2.89% to $107.34 on September 28. The move followed Trump's rejection of Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Hormuz traffic remained badly impaired at 132 transits in the September 21–27 week, versus roughly 130 per day before the war. Brent November futures settled the month at $103.53 and WTI at $90.42. Against that mix of rising yields, rising oil and falling financials, our positioning did the work. Our technology sleeve, which was 40% of the book, returned +15.3% against XLK's +5.0%, contributing +5.03pp. Micron's September 30 results beat expectations and supported the AI and memory shortage theme that carried the book. The print showed $33.42 adjusted EPS vs. $31.61 expected on $54.23B revenue vs. $51.07B, with Q1 FY27 guidance of ~$61.5B. Our financials exposure cost us, as expected in a month like this, but the energy sleeve held nearly flat at -0.1% versus XLE's -3.8%.

Monthly Top Performers

Semiconductors and storage drove essentially all of the month's gains, led by Marvell, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Sandisk, Seagate and Micron. Financials were the clear drag, with Virtu Financial and Allstate the two largest detractors.

Pillar 1: Stock Universe Update

Pillar 1 rebuilds the investable universe each month from the ground up, ranking the full liquid US-listed opportunity set on fundamental quality, growth durability and valuation discipline. Entering September 2026 the universe skewed heavily toward technology — nine of our names — with four in financial services and three in energy. That tilt was the single biggest driver of the month's result.

Notable Shifts

• AI infrastructure and memory: the screen continued to surface semiconductor and storage names with accelerating revenue, validated by Micron's September 30 print where revenue nearly quadrupled year-over-year to $54.23B.
• Rate-sensitive financials downgraded: with the Fed hiking to 3.75%–4.00% and the sector down 6.3% on the month, capital-markets and property-and-casualty insurance names lost rank on deteriorating momentum scores.
• Refining and energy resilience: with Brent near $103.53 at month-end, refiners with strong crack-spread economics (the margin between crude cost and fuel prices) screened well and gained rank for October 2026.
• Diversified banking rotation: large, well-capitalised North American banks with high dividend yields and stable return on equity replaced narrower capital-markets exposure.
• Test, measurement and distribution: scientific instruments and electronics distribution entered the frame as a lower-multiple way to own the same AI capex cycle.

Sector Performance

The table below compares each sector sleeve against its benchmark ETF for the month.

*Our Return is the average return of our holdings in each sector while held, weighted by their share of the portfolio. ETF is the sector benchmark ETF's calendar-month return. Impact is the sector's contribution to portfolio return in percentage points, after the Risk Overlay's equity exposure.*

Earnings Scorecard

Two portfolio names reported during September 2026, and both beat on the top and bottom line.

Pillar 2: Portfolio Changes

At the end of September 2026 the optimizer rebalanced the book for October 2026: ten new positions added, nine closed, and six maintained. That takes the portfolio to 16 names at roughly equal weight. The direction of travel is a broader technology sleeve built around the AI capex cycle, meaning spending on AI infrastructure. The financials sleeve has been rebuilt around large diversified banks and insurers in place of capital-markets exposure, alongside a refining-led energy allocation.

New Positions

• AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) — Technology | Semiconductors. Direct exposure to AI accelerator and data-center CPU share gains, with forward earnings estimates stepping up sharply. Market Cap: $999B, Profit Margin: 15.6%, Revenue Growth: +50.1%, P/E 153.7, PEG 0.63, Operating Margin 17.3%, ROE 10.2%, EPS Growth (Fwd) 291.4%, Analyst Rating 4.2/5.. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +291%, Operating Margin 17.3%
• ARM (Arm Holdings plc ADS) — Technology | Semiconductors. A royalty-model toll booth on compute architecture across mobile, edge and increasingly the data center. Market Cap: $309B, Profit Margin: 20.3%, Revenue Growth: +22.4%, P/E 298.6, PEG 2.73, Operating Margin 7.6%, ROE 13.4%, EPS Growth (Fwd) 120.5%, Analyst Rating 4.1/5.. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +121%
• BMO (Bank of Montreal) — Financial Services | Banks - Diversified. A large diversified North American bank offering yield and stability in place of capital-markets beta. Market Cap: $116B, Profit Margin: 25.7%, Revenue Growth: +12.0%, P/E 19.3, Operating Margin 30.5%, ROE 10.6%, Dividend Yield 3.94%, Analyst Rating 3.3/5.. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +90%, Operating Margin 30.5%
• BNS (Bank of Nova Scotia) — Financial Services | Banks - Diversified. International banking franchise at 17.2x earnings with a 4.79% dividend yield and improving operating leverage. Market Cap: $113B, Profit Margin: 28.4%, Revenue Growth: +11.7%, PEG 1.00, Operating Margin 41.2%, ROE 11.5%, Analyst Rating 3.5/5.. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +76%, Operating Margin 41.2%
• GRMN (Garmin Ltd) — Technology | Scientific & Technical Instruments. High-margin hardware franchise with fortress economics and low leverage. Market Cap: $55B, Profit Margin: 24.5%, Revenue Growth: +11.4%, P/E 29.9, Operating Margin 30.4%, ROE 21.9%, Dividend Yield 1.45%, Analyst Rating 3.0/5.. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +16%, ROE 21.9%
• KEYS (Keysight Technologies Inc) — Technology | Scientific & Technical Instruments. Electronic design and test exposure to the same AI and networking buildout, at a PEG of 0.70. Market Cap: $61B, Profit Margin: 19.1%, Revenue Growth: +36.5%, P/E 48.8, Operating Margin 25.7%, ROE 20.9%, EPS Growth (Fwd) 87.7%, Analyst Rating 4.2/5.. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +88%, Analyst Consensus 85% Buy/Strong Buy
• PFG (Principal Financial Group Inc) — Financial Services | Asset Management. Retirement and asset management franchise trading at 15.9x with a 2.80% yield. Market Cap: $24B, Profit Margin: 9.9%, Revenue Growth: +6.4%, Operating Margin 12.3%, ROE 13.0%, EPS Growth (Fwd) 48.4%, Analyst Rating 2.9/5.. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +48%, PEG 1.06
• RGA (Reinsurance Group of America) — Financial Services | Insurance - Reinsurance. Life and health reinsurance with double-digit revenue growth at 11.1x earnings. Market Cap: $16B, Profit Margin: 5.8%, Revenue Growth: +18.5%, Operating Margin 10.6%, ROE 11.7%, Dividend Yield 1.47%, Analyst Rating 3.9/5.. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +35%, P/E 11.1
• SNX (Synnex Corporation) — Technology | Electronics & Computer Distribution. A low-multiple, high-turnover way to participate in IT spending, with 37.7% revenue growth at 15.7x earnings. Market Cap: $20B, Profit Margin: 1.8%, Operating Margin 3.0%, ROE 14.9%, PEG 0.80, Analyst Rating 4.4/5.. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +48%, PEG 0.80
• VLO (Valero Energy Corporation) — Energy | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Refining leverage to tight US fuel markets with Brent settling the month at $103.53. Market Cap: $112B, Profit Margin: 5.5%, Revenue Growth: +51.7%, P/E 16.2, Operating Margin 12.3%, ROE 27.6%, Dividend Yield 1.20%, Analyst Rating 4.3/5.. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +59%, ROE 27.6%

Positions Closed

• ALL (The Allstate Corporation) — detracted 0.79pp, returning -13.9% while held; fell out of rank as property-and-casualty momentum deteriorated alongside the broad financials de-rating.
• BPOP (Popular Inc) — detracted 0.42pp at -7.6% while held; regional banking scores weakened as the Fed signalled a higher terminal rate.
• DAR (Darling Ingredients Inc) — detracted 0.46pp at -8.4% while held; fundamental ranking fell below the universe cut-off.
• DINO (HF Sinclair) — exited as the refining sleeve was consolidated into higher-ranked names.
• ET (Energy Transfer LP) — detracted 0.45pp at -8.1% while held; midstream scores faded as yields climbed to near two-decade highs.
• MRVL (Marvell Technology Group Ltd) — the month's top contributor at +24.8% while held, but valuation screens tightened after the move and capital was redeployed.
• PAA (Plains All American Pipeline) — closed alongside the broader midstream reduction.
• STX (Seagate Technology PLC) — contributed 0.64pp at +11.3% while held; closed as storage exposure was consolidated after a strong run.
• VIRT (Virtu Financial, Inc.) — the month's largest detractor at -16.0% while held; ranking no longer supported the position.

Positions Maintained

Six names carry into October 2026: ARW (Arrow Electronics), HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise), MPC (Marathon Petroleum), MU (Micron Technology), PSX (Phillips 66) and SNDK (Sandisk). HPE beat on September 2 ($1.11 vs $0.94 EPS, $12.2B vs $12.0B revenue) and contributed 1.23pp at +22.3% while held. MU beat on September 30 ($33.42 vs $32.56 EPS, $54.2B vs $52.6B revenue) and contributed 0.62pp at +11.1% while held. In these positions the fundamental thesis is being confirmed by reported results, not just by price.

Pillar 3: Risk Overlay in Action

September 2026 Exposure Journey

Equity exposure was held at 81% for the whole of September. Exposure opened the month at 81% and closed at 81%, a change of zero percentage points. No step changes were recorded in the daily log. Average exposure across the month worked out to 80.8%. The strategy stayed in Accelerating mode through the September 11 inflation print and the September 15–16 FOMC hike to 3.75%–4.00%. The same level and mode held through the September 28 oil spike and the September 29 consumer confidence miss.

The value of holding that line shows up in the arithmetic. With the S&P 500 at -0.3% and the Dow down 4.3%, the temptation to brake was obvious. Had the overlay cut exposure into the FOMC meeting, we would have been underweight for the technology leadership that produced +15.3% from our 40% technology sleeve against XLK's +5.0% — the single largest source of the month's +2.8 percentage points of outperformance. Intra-month drawdown this month was contained at -1.9%, well inside the tolerance that governs the throttle, which is precisely why no brake was applied. The overlay is designed to respond to measured deterioration in market internals and volatility regime, not to headlines, and in September those measures never crossed the threshold.

“The hardest discipline in systematic investing is sitting still at full throttle while the headlines scream at you to lift off. The rules set the exposure level, and in September they left it unchanged.”

Pit Stop

MRVL (Marvell Technology Group Ltd) — Top Contributor

Marvell was the month's single largest contributor, returning +24.8% while held and adding 1.26 percentage points to portfolio performance. Return since added: +24.8%. The data-infrastructure semiconductor franchise spans the data center core to the network edge and sits directly in the path of AI buildout spending. The September re-rating of custom silicon and optical connectivity names rewarded that exposure. Fundamentals: Market Cap $237B, Revenue Growth +36.5%, Profit Margin 27.9%, Operating Margin 16.7%, ROE 16.5%, P/E 86.9, Forward EPS Growth 11.6%, Analyst Consensus 4.5/5 (23 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell). Marvell is not held going forward in the October 2026 portfolio, as the optimizer found better risk-adjusted entries elsewhere in semiconductors after the move.

VIRT (Virtu Financial, Inc.) — Top Detractor

Virtu Financial was the month's largest detractor, returning -16.0% while held and costing 0.9 percentage points. Return since added: -16.0%. The market-making and execution-services model has genuine quality characteristics, but it was caught in the broad financials de-rating that produced the sector's worst month since March 2023. Fundamentals: Market Cap $5B, Revenue Growth +29.1%, Profit Margin 16.9%, Operating Margin 36.3%, ROE 53.6%, P/E 8.9, Forward EPS Growth 11.5%, Analyst Consensus 3.3/5 (2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell). Virtu is not held going forward in the October 2026 portfolio.

Looking Ahead

October 2026 opens with a 16-stock book, equity exposure at 81% and the engine in Accelerating mode. The dominant question is whether the Fed delivers the additional 25 basis point hike implied by the median dot. Comments from NY Fed President Williams on September 29 point to December rather than October. A second question is whether the US–Iran standoff keeps Brent above $100. Our positioning is deliberately barbelled against both: AI-infrastructure technology on one side, refining and large-cap banking on the other.

Month Ahead

Seven portfolio names report during October 2026, and the macro calendar is dense, culminating in the October 28 Fed decision and October 29 PCE and GDP releases. There are no market holidays this month.

Portfolio earnings in October 2026

Headline economic releases

The Three Pillars Remain Active

• Pillar 1 — Stock Universe: the full liquid US-listed universe is re-screened every month on quality, growth and valuation, with no legacy positions grandfathered in.
• Pillar 2 — Portfolio Construction: a concentrated 15–30 stock portfolio at equal weight, currently 16 names, rebalanced monthly on the optimizer's verdict rather than on conviction narratives.
• Pillar 3 — Risk Overlay: equity exposure is managed dynamically between braking and full throttle; it held flat at 81% through September 2026 and enters October 2026 unchanged.
• Discipline over prediction: we do not forecast the Fed or the oil price — we size exposure to what the market is actually doing.

Key Themes

• AI compute and accelerators: AMD, ARM, MU — direct exposure to the memory shortage and accelerator buildout validated by Micron's September 30 guidance of ~$61.5B revenue for Q1 FY27.
• Enterprise IT and distribution: HPE, ARW, SNX, SNDK — the picks-and-shovels layer of the same capex cycle, at materially lower multiples.
• Test, measurement and devices: KEYS, GRMN — high-margin instrument franchises with 20%+ returns on equity.
• Refining and energy: MPC, PSX, VLO — leverage to tight US fuel markets with Brent settling September at $103.53.
• Diversified banking and insurance: BMO, BNS, PFG, RGA — rebuilt financials exposure favouring balance-sheet stability and dividend yield over capital-markets beta.

Why Copy AlphaWizzard?

• A fully systematic, rules-based process — three pillars, no discretionary overrides, no story-driven position sizing.
• Concentration with discipline: a 15–30 stock portfolio at roughly equal weight, so every name matters but no single name can define the outcome.
• Published results: every trade, position and the full performance history are publicly visible on eToro, and every position added, closed and maintained is published each month alongside the contributors and the detractors.
• Fundamental grounding: positions are selected on margins, revenue growth, returns on equity and valuation — and tested against reported earnings, as HPE and MU both confirmed in September.
• Monthly rebalancing that keeps the book aligned with current conditions rather than last year's winners.

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