Week in Review: May 8 - May 16, 2026

Performance Snapshot

AlphaWizzard declined 1.1% during the reporting period, underperforming both the S&P 500 (+0.2%) and Nasdaq (-0.3%) as market volatility intensified across equity markets. Despite this near-term weakness, our year-to-date performance remains substantially ahead of benchmark indices. AlphaWizzard has generated returns of +25.2% compared to +8.4% for the S&P 500 (SPY) and +15.4% for the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), reflecting the effectiveness of our systematic investment approach in identifying and capturing market opportunities. Our disciplined risk management framework continues to demonstrate its value in capital preservation during periods of market stress. AlphaWizzard's maximum drawdown of -8.8% compares favorably to -9.1% for SPY and -11.8% for QQQ, highlighting our ability to deliver superior downside protection while maintaining our focus on alpha generation.

The F1 Dashboard

AlphaWizzard maintained its CRUISING mode this week with 49% equity exposure, unchanged from the previous week. In F1 terms, we're holding a steady pace through the middle sector of the track—not accelerating aggressively but maintaining good positioning. This measured approach allowed us to capture selective opportunities while avoiding the worst of Friday's market selloff that saw the S&P 500 drop -1.2% and Nasdaq fall -1.5%.

Market Radar

Markets faced a challenging week as inflation data came in hotter than expected and Fed leadership transition created additional uncertainty. April CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year versus the 3.7% consensus, while producer prices surged 6% annually—the highest reading in months. The week culminated in a brutal Friday selloff, with the Dow dropping 537 points (-1.1%) as traders digested the implications of Kevin Warsh officially becoming Fed Chair, replacing Jerome Powell whose term expired May 15th.

Sector performance was mixed, with energy leading on oil price strength (+6.7% for XLE) after Trump's China summit produced agreements for increased US oil purchases. Technology showed resilience (+0.4% for XLK) supported by Cisco's impressive earnings beat that sent shares up 13.4%. However, basic materials struggled (-2.5% for XLB) as industrial commodity prices faced pressure from mixed economic signals including retail sales that missed expectations at +0.5% versus +0.6% consensus.

Looking ahead, markets are grappling with a dramatically shifted Fed outlook—the probability of a rate hike this year jumped to 45% from just 1% a month ago. Wednesday's FOMC minutes release will be critical for understanding the new Fed leadership's policy direction, while housing data on Thursday could provide insights into how higher mortgage rates are impacting the real economy.

Under the Hood

Top Contributors

Laggards

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Impact is each sector's NAV-weighted EOD impact in percentage points (pp). Σ Impact (-0.78pp) sits slightly below the headline NAV (+0.50pp); the 1.28pp difference reflects cash-sleeve carry, dividends in period, and intraday execution by the daily risk overlay (the model uses end-of-day prices, while live trades happen throughout the day).

This week presented challenging sector dynamics across our holdings. Energy was the standout sector with XLE gaining +6.7%, but our energy positions underperformed with -1.9% returns, creating a significant -8.7% gap. Technology showed resilience at the sector level (+0.4%) but our tech holdings faced headwinds with -1.0% returns, though the large sector weighting (29.5%) amplified the -0.29% portfolio impact. Basic materials continued their recent weakness, with both the sector ETF (-2.5%) and our holdings (-3.4%) declining, while our financial services and industrials positions also lagged their respective sector benchmarks.

Pit Stop

This week we're spotlighting one of our top contributors that exemplifies the specialized technology plays driving our outperformance.

TTMI - TTM Technologies Inc

Week: +6.4% | MTD: +5.8% | 6M: +160.4%

TTM Technologies delivered another strong week, contributing +0.21% to portfolio returns and showcasing the power of specialized semiconductor supply chain exposure. TTMI designs and manufactures printed circuit boards and electro-mechanical solutions for aerospace, defense, data center, and automotive markets—positioning it perfectly to benefit from AI infrastructure buildout and defense modernization trends. The company's impressive 6-month gain of +160.4% reflects growing recognition of its critical role in supporting next-generation computing and communication systems. With data center demand accelerating and defense spending priorities shifting toward advanced electronics, TTMI continues to execute on its strategic positioning in high-growth, mission-critical applications.

Week Ahead

The upcoming week brings key Fed communication and critical housing data that could shape market direction as investors adjust to the new monetary policy landscape.

Portfolio Earnings

No portfolio holdings are scheduled to report this week.

Key Events

Wednesday's FOMC minutes will be the first major communication from the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh, potentially providing crucial insights into the policy direction that drove rate hike probabilities to 45%. Thursday's housing data takes on added significance given the recent surge in mortgage rates and concerns about real estate market cooling. Our systematic approach keeps us well-positioned to navigate this uncertainty, with our 49% equity exposure providing both participation in any strength while maintaining defensive flexibility.

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