Week in Review: Jun 26 - Jul 4, 2026

Watch: Jun 29 – Jul 3, 2026

A short video deep dive on this topic. Prefer to read? The full post is below.

Performance Snapshot

This week was a difficult one — AlphaWizzard returned -6.7%, underperforming the S&P 500 (+2.2%) and Nasdaq (+0.9%) as a concentrated semiconductor sell-off hit our technology holdings disproportionately hard. That said, the broader picture remains healthy: year-to-date we're up +18.1%, comfortably ahead of SPY's +9.2% and roughly in line with QQQ's +16.0%, and since inception in November 2025 we've compounded at +27.8% versus +9.2% for SPY. It's also worth noting that our maximum drawdown since inception of -12.7% is deeper than SPY's -9.1% — a reminder that higher long-term returns come with periods of elevated short-term volatility, and that managing exposure dynamically (as we did this week) is central to our risk discipline.

The F1 Dashboard

Our model ended the week in CRUISING mode with equity exposure at 49%, having increased meaningfully from 26% at the start of the week — a shift of +23.0 percentage points. In F1 terms, we spent much of the week with one foot on the brake as uncertainty peaked mid-week during the semiconductor rout, but as prices reset and our signals reassessed the risk landscape, the model began pressing the accelerator again. Cruising mode means we are neither fully committed to the fast lane nor pulling completely into the pits — we are driving at a controlled pace, ready to accelerate if conditions improve or brake again if volatility spikes. This dynamic adjustment is the model doing exactly what it's designed to do: protect capital during sharp dislocations and re-enter as the risk/reward improves.

Market Radar

The dominant story of this holiday-shortened week was a brutal mid-week sell-off in semiconductor stocks that cascaded across the technology sector. On Wednesday, Sandisk fell approximately 16.5%, Micron dropped roughly 13.8%, and Applied Materials, Lam Research, TTMI, and several other chip-adjacent names all declined around 10% — not on any specific earnings news, but driven by profit-taking after the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) had roughly doubled during the second quarter. Intel and Marvell each shed around 9%, and AMD dropped 4.3% in the same wave. The SOX itself lost 6.7% on that single session. Elsewhere, June Nonfarm Payrolls released Thursday came in at just 57,000 — well below the consensus of 113,000 — with prior months revised down by a combined 74,000. ADP private payrolls also disappointed at 98,000 versus 110,000 expected. Stocks initially rallied on the soft jobs data (pushing back fears of an imminent Fed rate hike) before the tech-led sell-off overwhelmed any relief.

Outside of technology, the picture was considerably more constructive. The broader S&P 500 finished the week up +2.2% and the equal-weight index fared even better, reflecting strength in consumer discretionary (+2.4% for XLY) and industrials (+1.5% for XLI). Nike reported a headline earnings beat on June 30 — adjusted EPS of $0.20 versus $0.13 expected — though shares fell on a 12% drop in China sales, underscoring that tariff tailwinds (the Supreme Court overturned several of Trump's global tariff policies, triggering an estimated $986M refund for Nike) cannot fully offset demand headwinds in key international markets. Oil prices continued their slide, with WTI crude falling nearly 2% to just above $68 per barrel, down roughly 20% over the prior two weeks, as optimism around US-Iran nuclear talks in Doha and increased Strait of Hormuz traffic weighed on energy prices.

Heading into next week, sentiment is cautiously mixed. The soft jobs data has reduced near-term rate-hike anxiety, but the Fed remains split — at the June FOMC meeting, roughly nine members indicated it appropriate to raise rates one or two more times in 2026, while nine others favored holding or cutting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra on July 1, reiterated that "prices are too high" while declining to hint at the July decision. With the FOMC meeting landing on Wednesday July 8, the market will be watching closely for any signal on the path ahead. Tariff policy adds another layer of uncertainty, with rates forecast to rise from 10% to 15% in August. The week ahead promises to be eventful.

Under the Hood

⚠️ Note: The portfolio was rebalanced during this week. Contribution figures below reflect NAV-weighted end-of-day positioning and may not perfectly align with the headline return due to intraday execution and cash-sleeve movements — see the sector footnote for full reconciliation.

Top Contributors

In a week where virtually everything in our portfolio declined, "top contributors" is a relative term — these names simply fell the least and therefore caused the least damage. FLEX, SANM, and DOCN each dropped in the -6.6% to -7.1% range, each contributing around +0.1pp relative to the portfolio's deeper losses elsewhere. Their relatively contained declines reflect lower beta to the semiconductor-specific sell-off that hit our heavier positions much harder.

Laggards

The laggards this week were squarely in the crosshairs of the mid-week semiconductor sell-off. TTMI (TTM Technologies) was the worst performer at -18.5%, contributing -0.3pp to portfolio return. SNDK fell -16.5% (-0.2pp) and Micron (MU) dropped -13.8% (-0.2pp). These moves were not earnings-driven — they were pure profit-taking after the SOX had roughly doubled in Q2. While painful in the short term, these remain fundamentally sound positions in our model's view, and the rebalance executed this week reflects updated conviction levels.

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Impact is each sector's NAV-weighted EOD impact in percentage points (pp). Σ Impact (-6.7pp) reconciles with the headline NAV (-6.70pp); any small residual reflects cash-sleeve carry and dividends in period.

Technology was the clear driver of pain this week, and the numbers tell the story starkly: while the XLK ETF itself only fell -0.3%, our technology holdings dropped -9.6% — a -9.3 percentage point underperformance versus the sector benchmark — contributing -6.5% to our total portfolio return. This reflects how concentrated the sell-off was in the specific semiconductor and electronics names we hold (TTMI, MU, SNDK, and others), which diverged sharply from the broader tech index. Consumer Cyclical and Industrials both saw their ETFs post positive returns on the week (+2.4% and +1.5% respectively), but our individual stock picks in those sectors also declined — -6.7% and -7.8% respectively — generating small negative contributions of -0.1% each. The takeaway is clear: this was a week where the broader market's gains were concentrated in areas we were underweight, while our higher-conviction semiconductor and electronics positions bore the brunt of sector-specific profit-taking. The model's mid-week rebalance and exposure increase to 49% reflects its assessment that this dislocation is largely technical rather than fundamental.

Pit Stop

Each week we put one or more holdings in the spotlight — looking at recent performance, what the company does, and what's driving the price action. This week we spotlight FLEX, which despite being one of our "top contributors" in a difficult week, still had a tough few days as the broader electronics supply chain sold off.

FLEX - Flex Ltd

Flex Ltd is a global electronics manufacturing services (EMS) company that designs and builds products for some of the world's largest technology and industrial companies — think supply chain infrastructure, data center hardware, medical devices, and automotive electronics. It is a direct beneficiary of the AI infrastructure build-out and the onshoring of manufacturing capacity. After an extraordinary +121.6% run over the past six months, FLEX was always vulnerable to the kind of profit-taking wave that swept through semiconductor and electronics names on Wednesday — and indeed it fell -6.7% this week, though this made it one of our least-damaged holdings. The MTD figure of -15.6% over just two trading days reflects the sharp reset at the start of July. Importantly, FLEX had no company-specific negative news; the sell-off was macro and technical in nature. Our average entry sits near $152.72, so at the current price of $136.86 the position is about 10% underwater after this pullback. That price is still a meaningful discount to where FLEX traded just two weeks ago, which the model reads as a potential opportunity for patient, systematic investors.

Week Ahead

After a holiday-shortened and volatile week, the calendar gets immediately busy — with the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday front and centre alongside a batch of key economic data. The market will be looking for clarity on the Fed's path after last week's soft payrolls print.

Portfolio Earnings

No portfolio holdings are scheduled to report this week.

Key Events

All three events carry high-impact potential. Monday's ISM Business Survey will offer a real-time read on whether the US services and manufacturing sectors are holding up despite the slowing labour market. The Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday is the week's centrepiece: markets will parse every word of the statement and Chair Warsh's press conference for signals on whether the split FOMC leans toward a hike, a hold, or opens the door to a cut later in the year. Thursday's Jobless Claims will add another data point to the labour market picture following last week's weak payrolls — a meaningful spike would reinforce the case for the Fed to pause. Our systematic approach means we don't try to predict these outcomes — instead, our risk overlay is calibrated to adjust exposure dynamically as the data and market reactions unfold, just as it did this week when it moved us from 26% to 49% equity exposure.

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