Week in Review: Jun 19 - Jun 27, 2026

Performance Snapshot

This week AlphaWizzard returned -2.8%, underperforming the S&P 500 (-2.1%) slightly but meaningfully outperforming the Nasdaq (-4.3%), which bore the brunt of this week's tech-led selloff. Year-to-date, we remain far ahead at +26.6% versus SPY's +6.9% and QQQ's +15.0%, and since inception in November 2025 our +37.0% gain continues to dwarf benchmark returns. Notably, our maximum drawdown of -8.8% remains below both SPY's -9.1% and QQQ's -11.8%, reflecting the capital preservation discipline built into our systematic approach.

The F1 Dashboard

This week AlphaWizzard remained firmly in BRAKING mode, with equity exposure holding steady at 26% — unchanged from the start of the week. In F1 terms, we're not just lifting off the throttle; we're deep on the brakes, navigating a technically challenging section of the circuit. With only roughly one-quarter of the portfolio deployed in equities, the remaining ~74% sits in cash and defensive instruments, acting as a shock absorber against exactly the kind of volatility we saw this week. Our 26% exposure means that even as technology stocks shed -5.7% to -9.5% and the broader Nasdaq fell -4.3%, the damage to our NAV was structurally limited. This is the BRAKING mode working exactly as designed: sacrifice some upside participation to protect capital when the risk environment deteriorates. No rebalance was triggered this week, signalling that our model sees no compelling reason to accelerate back onto the track just yet.

Market Radar

It was a difficult week for U.S. equities, with technology stocks leading the retreat despite a blowout earnings report from Micron Technology (MU). MU delivered record fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $41.5B and adjusted EPS of $25.11 — handily beating consensus estimates — and shares surged 13.7% in after-hours trading on Wednesday. Yet the broader tech complex couldn't escape gravity, as the sector faced a potent cocktail of hawkish Fed repricing and lingering anxiety over AI cost escalation and a potential delay in OpenAI's IPO. The macro backdrop added further pressure: Thursday's Core PCE print came in at 3.4% year-over-year, slightly above the 3.3% forecast, while headline PCE jumped to 4.1% in May — reinforcing market fears of a Fed rate hike later this year. A Bank of America research note circulating early in the week warned of potentially up to three rate hikes ahead, which weighed heavily on rate-sensitive growth stocks. On the positive side, Q1 GDP was revised upward to +2.1% annualized (from +1.6%), and jobless claims fell, pointing to continued labor market resilience.

Sector performance was notably bifurcated. Technology was the clear epicenter of pain, with the XLK ETF dropping -5.7% as mega-cap names came under pressure on AI spending concerns. Storage names were particularly hard hit — our holdings WDC and STX fell -20.0% and -17.7% respectively, dragged down by broader concerns about memory and storage sector valuations even as MU itself delivered exceptional results. Industrials (XLI) held up far better at -0.3% at the ETF level, though our specific industrial holdings underperformed. Consumer Cyclicals (XLY) also declined modestly at -0.5% for the sector ETF. On the brighter side, investors appeared to rotate away from tech and into more defensive and cyclical areas of the market — a potentially healthy rebalancing dynamic. Geopolitics offered some relief: the U.S. and Iran signed a peace framework at Versailles, oil prices fell back toward $72/barrel as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalized, and a Congressional war powers resolution signalled bipartisan appetite for de-escalation.

Heading into next week, sentiment remains cautious. The Fed's hawkish pivot under new Chair Kevin Warsh — who used his first FOMC meeting to signal potential hikes and remove forward guidance — continues to reverberate through markets. The higher-than-expected Core PCE print cements that narrative. However, with the U.S.–Iran framework reducing tail risk in energy markets and GDP growth holding up at 2.1%, this is not a recessionary backdrop. The key question for markets is whether the hawkish repricing is now sufficiently priced in, or whether equities need to fall further before offering attractive risk-reward. Our model will continue monitoring these signals systematically, and the BRAKING posture keeps us well-positioned to weather further volatility while preserving dry powder to accelerate when conditions improve.

Under the Hood

Top Contributors

Laggards

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Impact is each sector's NAV-weighted EOD impact in percentage points (pp). Σ Impact (-2.46pp) sits slightly above the headline NAV (-2.80pp); the 0.34pp difference reflects cash-sleeve carry, dividends in period, and intraday execution by the daily risk overlay (the model uses end-of-day prices, while live trades happen throughout the day).

Technology was the dominant story this week, both in terms of portfolio weight (20.9%) and absolute damage. Our technology holdings returned -9.5% versus the XLK ETF's -5.7%, a -3.8% underperformance, contributing -2.0% to the total portfolio return — by far the largest drag. The culprits were clear: WDC and STX, our storage names, collapsed -20.0% and -17.7% respectively, pulling the sector sleeve well below the broader tech benchmark. Industrials told a similar story at the stock level — our holdings fell -10.4% against the XLI ETF's modest -0.3% decline, with BWA's -5.8% decline being a notable drag, contributing -0.4% to the portfolio. Consumer Cyclicals were a much smaller factor given the 1.7% weight, contributing -0.1% even as DOCN's -16.2% decline hit within this sleeve. The common thread across all three sectors is that our concentrated, high-conviction stock picks amplified sector-level moves in both directions — and this week, that amplification worked against us in a broad risk-off environment where investors sold individual names harder than ETFs.

Earnings Scorecard

Micron's fiscal Q3 2026 results were nothing short of exceptional — adjusted EPS of $25.11 crushed consensus estimates of $21.40 by 17.4%, while revenue of $41.5B surpassed forecasts by nearly $5B, accompanied by record gross margins of 84.9%. Shares surged 13.7% in after-hours trading following the announcement, a strong validation of the AI-driven memory demand thesis underpinning the position. However, the stock had already sold off meaningfully earlier in the week, reflecting the broader tech anxiety that dominated market sentiment, which ultimately capped how much of the after-hours gain translated into our weekly NAV.

Pit Stop

This week's spotlight shines on CIEN — our sole top contributor in a difficult week, and a name that demonstrates how disciplined position sizing and stock selection can deliver positive returns even when the broader market is under heavy pressure.

CIEN - Ciena Corp

Ciena Corporation is a networking systems, services, and software company that provides solutions enabling high-bandwidth connectivity — a direct beneficiary of the insatiable demand for fiber and optical infrastructure driven by AI data center build-outs and cloud expansion. This week, CIEN bucked the broader tech sell-off with a +4.2% gain, standing out as the portfolio's lone bright spot and contributing +0.1% to the overall return. While the MTD figure of -17.4% reflects the volatile trading environment in June, the 6-month return of +100.6% underscores the powerful structural tailwind behind the name. CIEN's resilience this week likely reflects investor rotation into networking infrastructure plays — companies with tangible, near-term revenue tied to AI capex rather than the speculative valuations that have weighed on software and consumer-facing tech. Our current position shows a +0.6% gain from our average entry of $476.84, with the stock currently at $479.50.

Week Ahead

The coming week brings a shortened trading calendar with the Independence Day holiday on Friday, and the macro calendar is relatively light — giving markets an opportunity to digest this week's PCE and Fed repricing before the next major catalyst cycle.

Portfolio Earnings

No portfolio holdings are scheduled to report this week.

Market Holidays

Key Events

A quieter week with no major economic releases scheduled.

With a holiday-shortened week, lighter volumes, and no major economic catalysts on the calendar, markets may take a breather after absorbing the hawkish PCE print and FOMC repricing. For AlphaWizzard, the BRAKING mode and 26% equity exposure means we remain well-protected should volatility persist, and our systematic model will continue scanning for any signals that warrant a posture adjustment heading into July. We'll be watching closely whether the rotation away from mega-cap tech into broader market sectors continues — a theme that could reshape the risk-reward calculus as we enter the second half of 2026.

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