Week in Review: Jul 31 - Aug 8, 2026

Watch: Aug 3–7, 2026

A short video deep dive on this topic. Prefer to read? The full post is below.

Performance Snapshot

This week AlphaWizzard returned +0.2%, lagging the S&P 500 (+3.5%) and Nasdaq (+5.1%) as we sharply reduced equity exposure into a fast-rising market. Year-to-date we sit at +12.2%, just behind SPY's +13.4% and QQQ's +17.7%, but since inception we remain firmly ahead at +21.4% versus +13.4% for SPY and +14.9% for QQQ. That inception-to-date edge reflects the systematic discipline of the strategy over full cycles, even when a single week of aggressive risk-taking would have paid off in the short term.

The F1 Dashboard

AlphaWizzard is currently in CRUISING mode at 45% equity exposure, down sharply from 81% at the start of the week — a reduction of 36.0 percentage points. In F1 terms, the model lifted decisively off the accelerator and tapped the brakes even as the pack sped ahead. Our systematic risk overlay reads the current environment as one where the reward-to-risk of full exposure has deteriorated, so it dialed back to preserve capital rather than chase the rally. The trade-off is clear: we gave up participation in a powerful up-week, but we head into a historically weak seasonal window (August–September) carrying materially less risk. When the model brakes, it is not making a market call — it is following the same rules that have delivered our inception-to-date outperformance.

Market Radar

Equities posted a second consecutive week of strong gains, with the S&P 500 advancing +3.6% to close above 7,700 for the first time ever and the Nasdaq surging +5.2% on a bounce-back in chip stocks. The defining event was Friday's July jobs report, a major downside surprise: the U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs versus expectations for roughly +80,000. Counterintuitively, markets rallied on the news — traders read the weak print as a signal that the Federal Reserve, which held rates on July 29, has no near-term need to hike and can leave policy on hold. Falling energy prices reinforced the risk-on tone, with crude oil down -9.2% on the week easing inflation concerns.

The other major driver was policy: President Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs took effect August 7, resetting trade relationships with dozens of countries. Rates ranged from a 10% baseline (UK) up to 41% (Syria), with negotiated deals landing Japan and South Korea at 15%, Indonesia and Thailand at 19%, and penalty rates hitting Brazil (50%) and Canada (35%). Sector-wise, technology and semiconductors led the charge higher, gold jumped +7.2% on safe-haven and inflation-hedge demand, while energy lagged badly alongside the drop in crude. Earnings season stayed strong, with roughly 85% of the ~300 S&P 500 companies reporting so far beating expectations and aggregate profits tracking north of +47% growth.

Heading into next week, sentiment is constructive but cautious. Strategists flag the seasonally weak August–September window, an interest-rate outlook still in flux, and the approaching midterms as headwinds. With CPI and PPI both due next week, the market's dovish jobs interpretation will face its first inflation test — precisely the kind of event-risk backdrop in which our reduced exposure is designed to pay off.

Under the Hood

Note: The portfolio was rebalanced during the week, and equity exposure was cut from 81% to 45% as the risk overlay engaged. Position sizes and impact figures below reflect the holdings as we actually held them day by day.

Top Contributors

Laggards

*Week and Impact answer different questions. Week is the stock's own price move. Impact is what the position added to the portfolio, measured day by day at the size we actually held. Equity exposure went from 81% to 45% during the week. Days when we held more of the portfolio in stocks therefore count for more. A stock can show a negative week and a positive impact, or the reverse. SNDK is this week's example. It returned -0.2% over the week, and still added 0.4 percentage points.

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Impact is each sector's NAV-weighted EOD impact in percentage points (pp). Σ Impact (+0.59pp) sits slightly above the headline NAV (+0.20pp); the 0.39pp difference reflects cash-sleeve carry, dividends in period, and intraday execution by the daily risk overlay (the model uses end-of-day prices, while live trades happen throughout the day).

The standout was Industrials, where our single holding surged +21.6% against the XLI's +3.0%, an +18.6% outperformance that added +0.7% to the portfolio despite the sector being just 3.8% of weight. Technology was our largest positive contributor at +0.9%, though this reflects position sizing more than stock selection — our tech names were flat (0.0%) versus the XLK's blistering +7.2%, a -7.3% relative drag we simply did not participate in as exposure came down. The pain came from Healthcare and Energy: Healthcare stocks fell -9.5% while the XLV rose +1.9% (a -11.4% miss, largely DVA), and Energy holdings dropped -7.3% versus the ETF's -3.4%, together costing us -1.2%. Basic Materials (+6.0% vs +4.8%) and Financial Services (in-line at +1.2%) rounded out modest positives. The week captured a classic rotation dynamic — we shone in cyclical Industrials and Materials but were positioned defensively out of the very tech rally that powered the benchmarks.

Earnings Scorecard

The scorecard was overwhelmingly strong on the fundamentals, with five clean beats led by ATI ($1.23 vs $1.05) and SNDK, whose $39.25 EPS crushed estimates on revenue up +372% year-over-year amid the AI-driven memory boom. Notably, results and price action diverged sharply: DVA beat on both lines yet still fell -23.5% on the week, while SNDK sold off roughly -9% pre-market on softer-than-hoped fiscal Q1 guidance despite the blowout quarter. The lesson reinforces our systematic discipline — clean earnings beats do not guarantee positive stock reactions, which is exactly why we size positions and manage exposure by rules rather than headlines.

Pit Stop

Each week we put one holding under the spotlight to explain what it does and why it moved. This week's clear winner earns the seat.

ATI - Allegheny Technologies Incorporated

Week: +21.6% | MTD: +21.6% (4 days) | 6M: +64.2%

ATI (Allegheny Technologies) is a specialty materials and components producer serving aerospace, defense, and other high-performance markets — think titanium and nickel-based alloys that go into jet engines and airframes. The stock rocketed +21.6% this week on the back of a strong earnings beat, reporting $1.23 EPS against a $1.05 estimate with revenue of $1.3B topping the $1.2B expectation. That result added +0.7% to the portfolio, making ATI our single largest contributor and the driver behind our Industrials sector's +18.6% outperformance versus the XLI. With the position up +20.9% from our average entry of $188.51 and a remarkable +64.2% over six months, ATI exemplifies the kind of durable aerospace-cycle exposure the model favors when the numbers line up.

Week Ahead

After a rally powered by a dovish read on the jobs data, the week ahead shifts the market's attention squarely onto inflation — with back-to-back CPI and PPI prints set to test the soft-landing narrative.

Portfolio Earnings

No portfolio holdings are scheduled to report this week.

Key Events

This is a data-heavy week, with Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI the marquee events. Markets have priced in a benign, on-hold Fed following the weak jobs report; hotter-than-expected inflation could quickly unwind that optimism, while cool prints would reinforce it. With exposure trimmed to 45% in CRUISING mode, AlphaWizzard is positioned to weather that event risk rather than bet on its outcome — our systematic overlay will let the incoming data, not the headlines, dictate whether the model accelerates back into the market or holds its defensive line.

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