Week in Review: Jul 17 - Jul 25, 2026

Performance Snapshot

This week AlphaWizzard returned +2.2%, meaningfully outperforming both the S&P 500 (-0.6%) and the Nasdaq (-1.6%) during a week dominated by an oil spike and a sharp semiconductor selloff. Year-to-date we're up +14.0% versus SPY's +8.4% and QQQ's +11.4%, and since inception we've delivered +23.4% against roughly +8% for both benchmarks. Our month-to-date figure of -11.1% reflects a challenging July for our tech-heavy exposure, and we remain focused on our systematic risk discipline as we navigate elevated volatility.

The F1 Dashboard

We are firmly in ACCELERATING mode. Over the course of the week our model lifted equity exposure from 49% to 81% — a +31.6% increase — as underlying momentum and breadth signals improved despite the noisy geopolitical tape. In F1 terms, we've come off the brakes and put our foot down: the systematic engine sees an opportunity set worth pressing into, allocating capital toward our highest-conviction technology, materials, and industrials holdings. Higher exposure means we participate more fully in upside, but it also means the daily risk overlay stays vigilant, ready to tap the brakes if conditions deteriorate.

Market Radar

Geopolitics was the undisputed driver this week. The renewed U.S.–Iran conflict and Houthi escalation in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb sent WTI crude above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022, settling up 3.25% at $102.88 at its peak. President Trump warned of 'major military punishment' if shipping was targeted again and signaled a ceasefire was not imminent, keeping energy markets on edge. The result was rising inflation expectations even without a fresh CPI print — headline inflation still sits at 3.5% year-over-year and unemployment at 4.2%.

Sector dispersion was stark. Energy was the obvious winner on the oil surge, while technology and semiconductors bore the brunt of the selling as investors rotated aggressively out of this year's winners amid AI-capex jitters. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell more than 10% on the week and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) slid nearly 9%. Even Intel's blowout report couldn't stem the tide — the stock was down roughly 28% for July despite soaring 278% in the first half. Thursday was the worst session, with the Dow tumbling more than 500 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting their worst one-day declines since June 23. Notable single-stock moves included Tesla plunging 14.41% on a Q2 EPS miss and IBM suffering one of its worst days ever on soft software demand.

By Friday's close the S&P 500 added just 0.05% to 7,411.98, the Nasdaq dropped 0.64% to 24,975.82, and the Dow gained 0.46% to 51,947.25 — helped by a 3.5% jump in Apple. It was a losing week for equities overall, with pain concentrated in tech. Sentiment heading into next week is cautious, with all eyes on the FOMC decision Wednesday and the Q2 GDP and PCE inflation prints Thursday.

Under the Hood

Note: AlphaWizzard rebalanced during the week, shifting exposure meaningfully higher and reallocating toward our strongest momentum signals in technology, materials, and industrials.

Top Contributors

Laggards

Pit Stop

Each week we shine a spotlight on a holding that captured our attention. This week we're focused on a materials name that has quietly been one of the strongest performers in the portfolio.

NUE - Nucor Corp

Week: +4.6% | MTD: +11.1% | 6M: +42.6%

Nucor is the largest steel producer in the United States and a bellwether for domestic industrial demand, operating a highly efficient mini-mill model that gives it flexibility across the cycle. NUE contributed +0.2% to the portfolio this week as steel and materials names caught a bid on infrastructure optimism and the possibility of new tariffs supporting domestic pricing. The stock's +42.6% six-month run underscores the durable industrial-cycle tailwind our model has been leaning into, and with Nucor set to report Q2 earnings after the close on Monday, July 27 (est. EPS $4.40), it's a name we'll be watching closely as it moves into the Week Ahead.

Week Ahead

Next week is a heavyweight — a dense earnings slate collides with the marquee macro events of the month, headlined by the FOMC decision and the following day's GDP and PCE inflation prints.

Portfolio Earnings

Four portfolio holdings report, with our spotlight name NUE kicking things off Monday after the close and top contributor STX reporting Tuesday after the bell — both key reads on the industrial and storage themes driving our recent outperformance. DINO also reports Tuesday, giving us a fresh look at refining margins against the backdrop of the oil spike.

Key Events

This is a marquee macro week. The FOMC decision concludes Wednesday against a backdrop where the effective fed funds rate sits at 3.63% and inflation expectations have been pushed higher by the energy spike. Thursday then delivers a one-two punch of Q2 GDP and PCE inflation — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — either of which could reset rate-cut expectations.

With equity exposure now at 81% and the model in accelerating mode, we're leaning into a market that offers real opportunity but also real risk from the Fed and inflation data. Our systematic process doesn't try to predict FOMC outcomes; instead, the daily risk overlay stands ready to adjust exposure if the data or the tape shift. We stay disciplined, let the signals do the driving, and keep our hand near the brake.

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