Week in Review: Jul 10 - Jul 18, 2026

Watch: Jul 13–17, 2026

A short video deep dive on this topic. Prefer to read? The full post is below.

Performance Snapshot

This was a difficult week: AlphaWizzard returned -6.1%, underperforming both the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq (-4.2%) as a severe semiconductor sell-off hit our tech-heavy book hard. Despite the month-to-date drawdown of -13.0%, we remain ahead on the metrics that matter over time — up +11.6% year-to-date versus SPY's +9.0%, and a commanding +20.8% since inception against +9.0% for SPY and +10.5% for QQQ. Our maximum drawdown of -17.7% is wider than the benchmarks this cycle, a direct consequence of concentrated chip exposure during a sector-specific bear market, and something our risk overlay is actively managing.

The F1 Dashboard

AlphaWizzard remains in CRUISING mode with equity exposure held steady at 49%, unchanged from the start of the week. In F1 terms, we're neither flooring the accelerator nor slamming the brakes — we're carrying moderate speed through a turbulent section of the track. With roughly half the portfolio in cash and defensive sleeves, the model is deliberately positioned to absorb shocks like this week's semiconductor rout while retaining enough exposure to participate if leadership stabilizes. This measured stance is exactly what the system is designed for during periods of elevated single-sector volatility: no panic braking, no reckless acceleration, just disciplined pace management.

Market Radar

The dominant story this week was a violent semiconductor rout that pushed the PHLX Semiconductor Index into a bear market, finishing down 10% for the week. The trigger was competitive: Chinese startup Moonshot debuted an AI model it claimed performs on par with leading systems from OpenAI and Anthropic, reigniting fears about the durability of U.S. chip pricing power and demand. The global damage was broad — the Korean index sits 25% below its June peak and Taiwanese equities entered correction territory. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.6% to close at 7,457.69, the Nasdaq slid 2.9% to 25,520.24, and the Dow dropped 0.9% to 52,146.42, ending the S&P 500's first losing week in three.

Beneath the tech carnage, the macro backdrop actually improved. June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month with the annual rate cooling to 3.5% from 4.2%, and core inflation was flat — a softer print than expected that collapsed market odds of a July 29 rate hike from roughly 40% to under 20% within 48 hours. PPI also declined 0.3%, helped by a 12.0% drop in gasoline prices. Financials were a bright spot as J.P. Morgan, Citi, and Goldman Sachs all beat, buoyed by trading, investment banking, and fee income from SpaceX's $86 billion June IPO. Communication services lagged after Netflix sank 7.3% on soft sales guidance, while healthcare bellwether UnitedHealth beat on EPS ($6.38 vs. $4.94 estimate).

Sentiment heading into next week is cautious. Middle East escalation continued — U.S. Central Command struck Iran for a seventh consecutive night, sending WTI crude up 13.44% over the five-day period to around $81 — while renewed U.S.-China trade friction added another layer of uncertainty. Fed nominee Warsh struck a hawkish tone in Congressional testimony, pushing back against any 'mission accomplished' read on inflation ahead of the July 28-29 meeting. With chips oversold and macro data cooling, the market is caught between a friendlier rate outlook and a fragile tech tape.

Under the Hood

Note: AlphaWizzard rebalanced during the week as part of its systematic process, adjusting holdings in line with the model's signals.

Top Contributors

Laggards

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Impact is each sector's NAV-weighted EOD impact in percentage points (pp). Σ Impact (-3.66pp) sits slightly above the headline NAV (-6.10pp); the 2.44pp difference reflects cash-sleeve carry, dividends in period, and intraday execution by the daily risk overlay (the model uses end-of-day prices, while live trades happen throughout the day).

The story this week is entirely concentration in Technology, which at 49.1% of the book was the epicenter of the pain. Our tech holdings returned -14.4% versus the XLK's -5.5%, an -8.9% underperformance driven by memory and networking names — SNDK (-29.3%), CIEN (-18.7%), and STX (-13.5%) — caught directly in the semiconductor bear market. That single sector accounted for -3.6pp of impact, effectively the entire drawdown. Elsewhere the model actually added value: Basic Materials outperformed by +4.8% with our stocks up +4.1% versus the ETF's -0.7% (led by Nucor), and Financial Services beat by +1.1% (+2.1% vs. +1.0%) as banks rallied on strong earnings. The takeaway is clear — our smaller satellite positions worked, but they were overwhelmed by an outsized, oversold tech allocation. The systematic process will continue trimming and rebalancing that concentration risk as signals evolve.

Pit Stop

In a week defined by broad-based tech losses, our spotlight goes to a genuine bright spot that demonstrated the value of diversification beyond the semiconductor complex.

NUE - Nucor Corp

Week: +4.1% | MTD: +6.2% | 6M: +35.6%

Nucor is North America's largest and most diversified steel producer, operating a network of electric-arc-furnace mini-mills that turn recycled scrap into steel products for construction, automotive, and infrastructure end markets. This week NUE gained +4.1% even as the broader Basic Materials ETF slipped -0.7%, a striking +4.8% of relative outperformance that made it our single best-performing holding. The stock benefits from being a domestic, infrastructure-levered play that is largely insulated from the AI and China-chip narrative that dominated headlines. With a remarkable +35.6% six-month return and continued momentum (+6.2% month-to-date), Nucor exemplifies the kind of uncorrelated, quality exposure the model seeks to balance against more volatile growth positions.

Week Ahead

The upcoming week brings the first of our portfolio holdings into earnings season and sets the stage for the Fed's July 28-29 meeting. With chips deeply oversold, all eyes will be on whether tech sentiment can stabilize.

Portfolio Earnings

Two holdings report next week. Vicor (VICR) delivers power-management modules before the open Tuesday with an estimated EPS of $0.66, and Intel (INTC) reports after the close Thursday with an estimated $0.22 — a bellwether print that will be closely watched for any read-through on broader semiconductor demand following this week's rout.

Key Events

The economic docket is relatively light, with weekly jobless claims on Thursday the highest-importance release. Following this week's below-consensus print of 208,000, the labor market data will help shape rate expectations ahead of the July 28-29 Fed decision.

Heading into the week, our systematic approach remains steady in CRUISING mode at 49% exposure. We'll let the model process the incoming earnings from VICR and INTC and any shift in the semiconductor tape rather than making discretionary bets — earnings surprises and Fed positioning are exactly the kind of signals the risk overlay is built to absorb. Discipline over prediction: we stay balanced, monitor closely, and let the process guide our pace.

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