Monthly Review: June 2026

Watch: June 2026 Review

Our June 2026 review in video form: the performance, the biggest movers, the risk overlay, and what comes next. Prefer to read? The full written review is below.

Performance Snapshot

AlphaWizzard returned -1.2% in June 2026, edging out the S&P 500 which declined -1.3% over the same period — a narrow but meaningful margin of outperformance (+0.1% vs SPY) in a month defined by broad equity weakness. On a year-to-date basis, AlphaWizzard stands at +28.2%, compared to +9.5% for SPY and +19.8% for QQQ, with a since-inception return of +38.7% and a maximum drawdown of -8.8% — a risk-adjusted profile that reflects the consistent application of our systematic three-pillar process.

The F1 Dashboard

Equity exposure began June at 49% and ended at 26%, a net reduction of -23.0 percentage points. This came as our systematic indicators registered a sustained deterioration in cross-asset risk conditions. The path was not a straight line. The overlay cut sharply, briefly stepped back up as signals stabilized, then cut again over the first half of the month. The strategy shifted firmly into Braking mode. See Pillar 3: Risk Overlay in Action below for the full day-by-day path of that reduction.

What Happened in Markets

June 2026 proved to be a difficult month for equities broadly, with the S&P 500 declining -1.3% and the Nasdaq slipping -0.3% as investors contended with a combination of macro headwinds. Rate sensitivity remained elevated throughout the month, with the bond market sending mixed signals on the trajectory of monetary policy. Credit spreads widened modestly in the latter half of June, and cross-asset volatility measures picked up enough to trigger a meaningful defensive response from our risk overlay — exactly the scenario the three-pillar framework is designed to navigate.

Within equities, the technology sector experienced uneven performance. While certain segments of the semiconductor space showed resilience — particularly companies tied to AI infrastructure spending and advanced packaging — broader tech names faced pressure from valuation concerns and mixed earnings revisions. Our portfolio, concentrated exclusively in technology with a deliberate tilt toward semiconductor equipment, memory, and networking hardware, was not immune to this sector-level softness. However, the stock selection discipline embedded in our quantitative screen ensured the portfolio held names with stronger fundamental momentum relative to the broader technology universe.

The decisive factor in AlphaWizzard's outperformance versus SPY in June was not stock selection alone but the timely reduction in overall equity exposure by the risk overlay. By cutting gross exposure from 49% to 26% over the first half of June as risk signals accumulated, the strategy cushioned the impact of market weakness and limited the intra-month drawdown to -2.6%. This is the F1 discipline in practice: when conditions call for braking, the strategy brakes — preserving capital for the acceleration phase that follows. With SPY down -1.3% and AlphaWizzard holding at -1.2%, the margin was narrow, but the structural integrity of the process held.

Monthly Top Performers

In a month where broad equity indices declined, relative performance was shaped primarily by semiconductor and networking hardware names that held firmer amid the sector-wide pressure. Positions with strong revenue growth momentum and lower beta characteristics provided the most effective buffers against the drawdown environment that characterized June 2026.

Pillar 1: Stock Universe Update

During June 2026, our quantitative screen flagged the following sector themes — these signals are what shaped the portfolio for July 2026. The screen evaluates fundamental quality, earnings momentum, and relative strength across our investable universe on an ongoing basis; the shifts noted below represent the dominant signals that emerged during the month and informed the optimizer's rebalancing decisions at the June month-end.

Notable Shifts

• Semiconductor equipment strengthened: Applied Materials (AMAT) and FormFactor (FORM) re-entered the screen on improving forward earnings estimates and accelerating revenue growth, driven by ongoing capital expenditure commitments from leading-edge chipmakers.
• Legacy semiconductor recovery: Intel (INTC) generated a positive screen signal for the first time in several review cycles, with forward EPS estimates turning materially more constructive and valuation metrics reaching historically compressed levels relative to the sector.
• Data infrastructure momentum: Marvell Technology (MRVL) scored strongly on revenue growth acceleration and analyst consensus upgrades tied to custom silicon and AI networking demand.
• Power conversion and energy technology: Vicor Corporation (VICR) and Bloom Energy (BE) scored on forward earnings growth and revenue acceleration respectively, reflecting a broadening of technology-adjacent demand beyond pure-play semiconductors.
• Industrial and construction technology exited: BWA, DOCN, FLEX, PWR, SANM, and STRL dropped below the screen's quality and momentum thresholds, signaling a rotation out of non-semiconductor industrial and software names and a tighter concentration within the semiconductor supply chain.

Pillar 2: Portfolio Changes

Going into July 2026, the optimizer rebalanced the June 2026 portfolio — adding 6 new positions and closing 6. Below are the names that made the cut for July 2026. The resulting portfolio consists of 15 equally weighted positions, all within the technology and technology-adjacent universe, with a pronounced concentration in the semiconductor supply chain — from equipment and materials through to memory, networking silicon, and power delivery. Equal weighting at approximately 6.7% per position reflects the optimizer's discipline of not overriding quantitative conviction rankings with subjective concentration bets.

New Positions

• AMAT (Applied Materials Inc) — Technology | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials. Applied Materials is the leading provider of materials engineering solutions enabling the manufacture of virtually every new chip generation, with its equipment used across deposition, etch, and inspection processes at the world's largest fabs. Market Cap: $574B, Profit Margin: 29.3%, Revenue Growth: +11.4%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +54.3%, ROE 39.7%
• BE (Bloom Energy Corp) — Industrials | Electrical Equipment & Parts. Bloom Energy designs and manufactures solid oxide fuel cell systems that deliver on-site, clean power to data centers and industrial customers — a direct beneficiary of surging power demand from AI infrastructure buildouts. Market Cap: $86B, Profit Margin: 0.3%, Revenue Growth: +130.4%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth implied by EPS estimate revision from -$0.03 to $2.14 current year
• FORM (FormFactor Inc) — Technology | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials. FormFactor is a specialized manufacturer of probe cards and semiconductor test equipment, positioned at a critical juncture in the advanced packaging and heterogeneous integration supply chain. Market Cap: $12B, Profit Margin: 8.1%, Revenue Growth: +32.0%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +224.6%
• INTC (Intel Corporation) — Technology | Semiconductors. Intel is executing a multi-year foundry and product turnaround, with forward estimates turning constructive as fab efficiency improves and new product ramps begin to contribute to the revenue mix. Market Cap: $702B, Profit Margin: -5.9%, Revenue Growth: +7.2%. Highlight: PEG 0.50, Fwd EPS Growth implied from -$0.61 to $1.09 current year estimate
• MRVL (Marvell Technology Group Ltd) — Technology | Semiconductors. Marvell is a leading provider of data infrastructure semiconductors with a rapidly growing custom silicon business serving hyperscale cloud customers, driving sustained revenue acceleration. Market Cap: $261B, Profit Margin: 29.0%, Revenue Growth: +27.6%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +16.1%, Analyst Consensus 86% Buy/Strong Buy
• VICR (Vicor Corporation) — Technology | Electronic Components. Vicor designs and manufactures high-density power conversion modules that are increasingly specified in AI server and data center architectures, where power delivery efficiency is a critical engineering constraint. Market Cap: $15B, Profit Margin: 32.0%, Revenue Growth: +20.2%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +89.3%, ROE 20.5%

Positions Closed

• BWA (BorgWarner Inc) — Exited as the quantitative screen flagged deteriorating earnings momentum and weaker relative strength within the automotive components sector; the position no longer met the quality and growth thresholds required for inclusion.
• DOCN (DigitalOcean Holdings) — Removed as revenue growth deceleration and margin pressure relative to cloud infrastructure peers pushed the stock below the screen's composite ranking threshold.
• FLEX (Flex Ltd) — Closed as the electronics manufacturing services segment showed weakening demand signals and the stock's forward earnings trajectory lagged the semiconductor-focused names now entering the portfolio.
• PWR (Quanta Services Inc) — Exited following a re-evaluation of momentum and valuation metrics; while the infrastructure services thesis remains structurally intact, the near-term score fell below the cut-off relative to the incoming semiconductor names.
• SANM (Sanmina Corporation) — Removed as the contract electronics manufacturing name scored below threshold on forward earnings growth relative to the broader opportunity set in semiconductor equipment and components.
• STRL (Sterling Infrastructure Inc) — Closed as the construction and infrastructure segment fell below the screen's momentum and quality filters; capital was redeployed into higher-conviction semiconductor supply chain names for July 2026.

Positions Maintained

Nine positions carried over from the June 2026 portfolio into July 2026, each retaining sufficient quantitative conviction across quality, momentum, and relative strength metrics to survive the optimizer's rebalancing. The maintained names — AMD, CIEN, LITE, MU, SNDK, STX, TTMI, VIAV, and WDC — span advanced processors, optical networking, NAND memory, hard disk storage, printed circuit board manufacturing, and fiber optic components, providing a diversified foundation within the broader technology and semiconductor ecosystem.

Pillar 3: Risk Overlay in Action

June Exposure Journey

June 2026 was a month in which the risk overlay earned its place in the process. The strategy entered the month at 49% equity exposure — a moderate positioning that reflected the cautious but constructive signal environment inherited from May. Over the first half of the month, a sequence of deteriorating readings across our 20+ cross-asset signals began to accumulate: credit market conditions tightened, volatility measures moved above key thresholds, and equity breadth indicators weakened in a manner consistent with a de-risking regime rather than a temporary consolidation. The overlay responded systematically. It cut exposure to 26% on June 8 as the first wave of weak readings landed. Signals then stabilized briefly, and exposure returned to 49% on June 10. When deterioration resumed, the overlay cut back to 26% on June 12, where it held through month-end. This back-and-forth is the design working as intended. The system recalculates every night and follows the weight of evidence up or down, rather than committing to one call and ignoring new data.

By mid-month, on June 12, equity exposure had been reduced to 26% — a -23.0 percentage point reduction that shifted the strategy firmly into Braking mode. The practical effect of this adjustment was a meaningful reduction in portfolio sensitivity to the equity market drawdown that materialized in the second half of June. Rather than riding the full decline with a fully invested book, the overlay's step-down in exposure ensured that a smaller percentage of capital was at risk as conditions deteriorated. This is the risk management philosophy in its most tangible form: the overlay does not attempt to predict market direction with precision, but it does respond systematically to the signals that historically precede elevated drawdown risk — and in June, those signals were clear.

“The risk overlay is not a prediction engine. It is a weight-of-evidence system. When enough signals point toward elevated risk, we reduce exposure — not because we know what comes next, but because the cost of being wrong is asymmetric.”

Looking Ahead

AlphaWizzard enters July 2026 with equity exposure back at 49%, up from the 26% defensive low reached in mid-June. Effective July 1, the risk overlay raised exposure as cross-asset signals stabilized, shifting the strategy from Braking into Cruising mode. This is not a directional call on where markets head next. It reflects the overlay's nightly recalculation of more than 20 risk indicators, which sets exposure to current conditions rather than a forecast. The July 2026 portfolio has been fully rebalanced by the optimizer, with 15 positions now concentrated in the semiconductor supply chain and technology-adjacent power infrastructure. Our analysis suggests the macro backdrop remains uncertain, with rate trajectory, earnings revision trends, and credit conditions all warranting close monitoring. The risk overlay will continue to evaluate incoming data daily and adjust exposure in either direction as the evidence evolves.

The Three Pillars Remain Active

• Pillar 1 (Stock Universe): The quantitative screen continues to evaluate the full investable universe for quality, momentum, and earnings revision signals — with the July 2026 portfolio reflecting a high-conviction concentration in semiconductor equipment, memory, networking silicon, and power conversion.
• Pillar 2 (Portfolio Optimizer): The July 2026 portfolio of 15 stocks is now live, equally weighted at approximately 6.7% per name, with six new additions and nine maintained positions from June.
• Pillar 3 (Risk Overlay): Daily monitoring of 20+ cross-asset signals continues; the overlay is calibrated to detect both further deterioration and the recovery signals that would warrant re-acceleration toward higher equity exposure within our 15-30 stock concentrated portfolio framework.

Key Themes

• Semiconductor Equipment & Advanced Packaging: AMAT, FORM — both added for July on improving forward earnings estimates and sustained capex commitment from leading-edge chipmakers.
• Memory & Storage Infrastructure: MU, SNDK, STX, WDC — a substantial allocation to the memory and storage complex, reflecting continued demand from AI training and inference workloads.
• Networking & Optical Connectivity: CIEN, LITE, VIAV — optical networking and fiber components remain critical enablers of data center interconnect scale-up.
• Logic & Custom Silicon: AMD, MRVL, INTC — advanced processor and custom silicon exposure spanning high-performance computing, AI accelerators, and foundry recovery.
• Power Delivery & Energy Technology: VICR, BE — high-density power conversion and on-site energy generation, two themes converging on the data center power constraint.
• PCB & Electronics Manufacturing: TTMI — printed circuit board exposure as a lower-beta complement within the semiconductor supply chain.

Why Copy AlphaWizzard?

• Systematic three-pillar process — every decision flows through the Stock Universe screen, Portfolio Optimizer, and Risk Overlay in a defined, repeatable sequence with no discretionary overrides.
• F1-inspired risk discipline: the strategy is designed to accelerate when conditions are favorable and brake decisively when they are not — capital preservation and participation in the same framework.
• Daily monitoring of 20+ cross-asset risk signals ensures the portfolio responds to changing market conditions in near real-time rather than waiting for monthly reviews.
• Concentrated 15-30 stock portfolio focused on highest-conviction names — not a diluted index-hugger, but a disciplined selection of names that have passed a rigorous quantitative screen.
• Full transparency — every monthly decision, position change, and risk overlay adjustment is documented and published, so copiers always understand what the strategy is doing and why.
• Two veterans with 40+ years of combined experience built and continue to operate the strategy — institutional-grade process accessible to retail investors on eToro.
• We invest our own capital alongside every copier — alignment of interest is structural, not a marketing claim.
• Institutional discipline meets accessible investing: the same systematic rigor applied in professional asset management, available through a single copy on eToro with no minimum commitment beyond the platform standard.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. Capital at risk.

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