Week in Review: Mar 27 - Apr 4, 2026

Performance Snapshot

AlphaWizzard delivered a +3.2% return this week, trailing the broader market rally that saw the S&P 500 advance +3.4% and the Nasdaq gain +4.0%. The market surge was driven by improving geopolitical sentiment and robust economic indicators. Despite this week's relative underperformance, AlphaWizzard maintains strong year-to-date results at +15.7%, significantly outpacing both the S&P 500 (-3.8%) and Nasdaq (-4.8%). Our disciplined risk management approach continues to demonstrate its value through superior drawdown protection, with a maximum decline of -8.8% since inception compared to -9.1% for SPY and -11.8% for QQQ.

The F1 Dashboard

Our systematic model maintains an 18% equity exposure this week, unchanged from the previous period, keeping us in full BRAKING mode. This defensive posture reflects our quantitative signals detecting elevated market risks despite the week's strong performance. Like an F1 driver approaching a complex chicane, we're prioritizing capital preservation over chasing momentum, allowing us to accelerate when conditions become more favorable.

Market Radar

Markets staged a dramatic comeback this week, with the S&P 500 gaining +3.4% and the Nasdaq surging +4.0% on hopes that Middle East tensions may be easing. The rally accelerated after unconfirmed reports suggested Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian might be open to ending the conflict with guarantees. Meanwhile, strong economic data provided additional fuel, with March jobs coming in at 178,000 versus consensus expectations of just 60,000, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Consumer confidence also edged higher to 91.8, beating expectations.

Sector performance was broad-based but led by technology, which benefited from the risk-on sentiment despite ongoing concerns about memory chip valuations. Basic materials and industrials also performed well, aided by hopes for reduced geopolitical risk premiums. Energy was the notable laggard, falling -5.3% as oil prices declined on peace speculation. The technology sector saw some mixed signals, with Micron continuing to decline nearly 30% from its March 18 earnings highs, weighing on semiconductor peers.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at Harvard University helped sentiment, as he indicated inflation expectations remain anchored despite rising energy prices. Markets interpreted this as reducing the likelihood of rate hikes, with December hike odds falling to just 2.2%. However, trade tensions persist with new tariff threats on pharmaceuticals and continued plans for 50% duties on steel, aluminum, and copper imports.

Under the Hood

Top Contributors

Laggards

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Contribution shows impact on total portfolio return.

*Note: The total portfolio return of +3.2% as reported by eToro also reflects gains from the NGD/Coeur Mining (CDE) merger transition, which are not reflected in the sector table above.*

Our stock selection delivered strong outperformance across most sectors this week, with particularly impressive results in basic materials where our holdings returned +8.3% versus the XLB ETF's +3.1%. Technology holdings also outperformed, gaining +7.0% compared to XLK's +4.7%, contributing +0.40% to total returns. Industrial picks continued their solid performance with a +1.7% outperformance versus XLI. The main disappointment was consumer cyclical, where our selections underperformed XLY by -1.3%, though the sector's modest portfolio weight limited the impact. Energy was the only sector to post negative returns, but our holdings slightly outperformed the broader XLE decline.

Pit Stop

This week we're spotlighting one of our top-performing holdings that exemplifies our systematic approach to identifying quality companies trading at attractive valuations.

RIO - Rio Tinto ADR

Week: +9.0% | MTD: +1.2% (3 days) | 6M: +41.0%

Rio Tinto delivered an exceptional +9.0% gain this week as basic materials rallied on hopes for reduced geopolitical tensions and continued strong demand fundamentals. The Anglo-Australian mining giant is a leading producer of iron ore, aluminum, copper, and other essential commodities, positioning it well for the ongoing global infrastructure buildout and energy transition. Recent catalysts include robust Chinese demand, supply constraints in key mining regions, and Rio's disciplined capital allocation strategy including consistent dividend payments. The stock has been a standout performer over the past six months, gaining +41.0% as commodity prices have strengthened and the company has demonstrated operational excellence across its diversified mining portfolio.

Week Ahead

The coming week brings critical inflation data that could significantly impact market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Portfolio Earnings

No portfolio holdings are scheduled to report this week.

Key Events

Friday's inflation data dump will be the week's defining moment, with both CPI and Michigan sentiment readings potentially reshaping Fed policy expectations. Given Chair Powell's recent comments about anchored inflation expectations, any surprise in either direction could trigger significant market volatility. Our systematic approach keeps us well-positioned to navigate these data-driven moves, maintaining our defensive posture while staying ready to accelerate when opportunities emerge.

Weekly positioning, performance vs benchmarks, and what's ahead. Every Sunday.