Week in Review: Mar 20 - Mar 28, 2026

Performance Snapshot

AlphaWizzard delivered a +0.4% return this week, substantially outperforming broader market indices as volatility persisted across equity markets. The S&P 500 declined -2.2% while the Nasdaq fell -3.4% during the same period. Year-to-date performance remains robust, with AlphaWizzard generating +11.9% returns compared to -7.0% for SPY and -8.4% for QQQ. This 18.9 percentage point outperformance versus the S&P 500 demonstrates the resilience of our systematic investment approach during periods of market stress. From a risk-adjusted perspective, AlphaWizzard has maintained a maximum drawdown of -8.8%—equivalent to the S&P 500's drawdown—while delivering materially superior absolute returns. Additionally, eToro has reduced the strategy's risk classification from 4 to 3, reflecting the effectiveness of our proprietary risk overlay framework in managing equity exposure amid current market conditions.

The F1 Dashboard

Our systematic model hit the brakes hard this week, slashing equity exposure from 54% to just 18% - a dramatic -36.1% reduction. This defensive positioning proved prescient as markets endured their fifth consecutive week of declines. In F1 terms, we're now in heavy braking mode, prioritizing capital preservation as our quantitative signals detect deteriorating market conditions amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns.

Market Radar

Markets faced a perfect storm this week as the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% while projecting 2026 inflation at 2.7% - higher than previous expectations due to surging energy prices from the ongoing Iran conflict. Brent crude climbed back above $110 per barrel, pushing Treasury yields to nearly nine-month highs and weighing heavily on equity valuations. The Fed explicitly noted that "implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain," adding to investor anxiety.

Sector performance was sharply divided, with basic materials leading gains as commodity prices surged, while technology bore the brunt of selling pressure amid rising rates and growth concerns. The manufacturing PMI provided a bright spot, rising to 52.4 from 51.6 with the strongest new orders growth since October 2025. However, consumer sentiment plunged to 53.3 from 56.6 in February, reflecting the impact of higher gas prices and geopolitical tensions on household confidence.

Looking ahead, markets remain on edge with Trump's ultimatum giving Iran until April 6 to negotiate before threatening power plants, setting up a potentially volatile period. The combination of persistent inflation pressures, geopolitical risks, and weakening consumer sentiment continues to challenge equity markets, with major indexes now posting five consecutive weeks of declines - a streak not seen since 2022.

Under the Hood

Top Contributors

Laggards

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Contribution shows impact on total portfolio return.

Our basic materials holdings absolutely crushed it this week, delivering +10.6% returns versus the sector ETF's +4.1% gain, contributing a massive +3.1% to total portfolio performance. This sector rotation into commodities amid inflation fears and geopolitical tensions perfectly aligned with our systematic positioning. While technology holdings underperformed the sector ETF by -2.4%, our financial services picks showed resilience, outperforming XLF by +1.5%. The standout was clearly our gold and mining exposure, which provided the defensive hedge our model was seeking as markets deteriorated.

Pit Stop

This week we're spotlighting the standout performer that exemplifies our systematic approach to crisis-driven opportunities.

NGD - New Gold Inc

Week: +33.9% | MTD: -9.4% | 6M: +75.2%

New Gold delivered spectacular returns this week as our systematic model's defensive positioning paid dividends. The Canadian gold producer benefited from the perfect storm of geopolitical tensions driving safe-haven demand and inflationary pressures pushing gold prices higher. With Brent crude above $110 and Treasury yields surging, investors flocked to precious metals as a hedge against both geopolitical risk and currency debasement. NGD's strong operational performance at its Rainy River and New Afton mines, combined with the favorable gold price environment, made it the perfect defensive play during this week's market turmoil.

Week Ahead

The coming week brings a critical jobs report and key PMI data that could significantly influence Fed policy expectations amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Portfolio Earnings

No portfolio holdings are scheduled to report this week.

Market Holidays

Key Events

The upcoming jobs report on Friday will serve as a critical catalyst for markets, given the Federal Reserve's heightened focus on labor market dynamics in their monetary policy framework. Our systematic model has already adopted a defensive stance, reducing equity exposure to 18%, positioning the portfolio to effectively manage potential volatility arising from this pivotal economic data release. The abbreviated trading week, with markets closed for Good Friday, will concentrate the market's initial reaction to Monday's (Easter Monday) session, when U.S. exchanges resume normal operations. This compressed timeframe may amplify price movements as participants digest the employment data alongside other economic indicators. Our quantitative investment approach continues to prioritize systematic risk management over tactical market timing, ensuring disciplined portfolio positioning regardless of near-term market fluctuations.

Weekly positioning, performance vs benchmarks, and what's ahead. Every Sunday.