Week in Review: Mar 13 - Mar 21, 2026

Performance Snapshot

AlphaWizzard declined 0.9% this week, demonstrating resilience during a period of significant market stress. The strategy outperformed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which fell 2.1% and 2.0% respectively, as markets grappled with a notable shift in interest rate expectations. Geopolitical tensions drove investors to reassess monetary policy outlook, with consensus expectations moving from anticipated rate cuts to potential rate increases. Year-to-date performance remains robust at +11.7%, substantially outpacing both the S&P 500 (-4.9%) and Nasdaq (-5.2%). This performance differential underscores the effectiveness of our systematic investment approach and disciplined risk management framework in navigating volatile market conditions while preserving capital during periods of broader market weakness.

The F1 Dashboard

Our systematic F1 Dashboard triggered a significant defensive recalibration following Friday's market close, reducing equity exposure from 54% to 18% - a substantial 36.1 percentage point decrease. This conservative positioning reflects our risk management framework's response to current market conditions. At 18% equity exposure, the portfolio maintains tactical flexibility to capitalize on opportunities as market dynamics stabilize while prioritizing capital preservation during this period of elevated uncertainty. This exposure change will be executed in the portfolio on Monday during continous trading after the market opens.

Market Radar

Markets faced a double blow this week from hawkish Federal Reserve policy and escalating Middle East tensions. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on Wednesday, with Chairman Powell stating they weren't making as much progress on inflation as hoped, causing markets to fall to session lows. Adding fuel to the fire, Tuesday's Producer Price Index surged +0.7% monthly versus consensus of +0.3%, raising fresh inflation concerns and reducing rate cut expectations for the remainder of 2026.

The ongoing US-Iran conflict continued to roil markets, with oil prices remaining above $98/barrel - up over 70% for the year. Strait of Hormuz disruptions have reduced crossings by over 70%, affecting 20 million barrels per day of crude oil flow. Technology and memory stocks provided bright spots amid the carnage, with AI-driven demand continuing to support semiconductor names, while basic materials bore the brunt of selling pressure on growth concerns.

Looking ahead, market sentiment remains fragile as investors grapple with the Fed's increasingly hawkish stance and uncertain geopolitical developments. The combination of sticky inflation data and Middle East tensions has created a challenging backdrop that favors defensive positioning - exactly where our systematic approach has positioned us.

Under the Hood

Top Contributors

Laggards

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Contribution shows impact on total portfolio return.

Technology was our standout performer, with our holdings returning +6.0% versus the XLK ETF's -1.1% decline, contributing +1.9% to portfolio returns. This +7.1% outperformance was driven by strong AI and memory demand benefiting names like LITE, SNDK, and STX. Conversely, Basic Materials was our biggest headwind, with our holdings declining -12.4% compared to XLB's -4.5% drop, resulting in -3.7% contribution to returns as mining stocks faced growth concerns. Financial Services underperformed by -1.6% despite the sector ETF posting modest gains, while Industrials and Consumer Defensive roughly matched their sector benchmarks. The stark divergence between our technology outperformance and materials underperformance highlights the current market's preference for AI-driven growth over commodity exposure.

Earnings Scorecard

Micron Technology delivered a stellar earnings beat on Wednesday, with both EPS and revenue significantly exceeding consensus estimates. The $12.20 EPS represented a 31% beat versus the $9.33 consensus, while revenue of $23.9B surpassed expectations by $3.7B. This strong performance underscores the continued strength in AI memory demand that has driven MU's impressive 62% year-to-date gain, validating our technology sector allocation.

Pit Stop

This week we spotlight one of our top performers that exemplifies the AI storage revolution currently driving technology markets:

STX - Seagate Technology PLC

Week: +7.2% | MTD: +0.8% | 6M: +79.3%

Seagate Technology continued its impressive run this week, gaining +7.2% as investors remained bullish on the data storage giant's positioning in the AI infrastructure buildout. The Dublin-based company, which manufactures hard disk drives and solid-state drives, has seen its stock nearly double over the past six months (+79.3%) as hyperscale data centers rush to build capacity for AI workloads. With massive language models requiring unprecedented amounts of storage, Seagate is benefiting from both increased demand and improved pricing power. The company's focus on high-capacity enterprise drives and NVMe SSDs has positioned it perfectly for the current AI infrastructure boom, making it a key beneficiary of the ongoing digital transformation.

Week Ahead

The upcoming week presents a concentrated economic calendar, with markets continuing to process this week's hawkish Federal Reserve pivot. Key data releases include Thursday's initial jobless claims and Friday's dual focus on inflation expectations alongside the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, both of which will provide critical insights into the current economic landscape and consumer positioning.

Portfolio Earnings

No portfolio holdings are scheduled to report this week.

Key Events

Following this week's unexpected Producer Price Index reading that renewed inflation concerns, market attention will focus on Friday's Michigan Consumer Sentiment data, particularly the embedded inflation expectations component. An increase in longer-term inflation expectations could further diminish prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts and create additional headwinds for risk assets. Our systematic investment approach positions us defensively for this environment, with equity exposure maintained at 18%. This conservative allocation provides flexibility to remain patient during current market uncertainties while positioning us to deploy capital more aggressively when our proprietary signals indicate improved conditions.

Weekly positioning, performance vs benchmarks, and what's ahead. Every Sunday.