Week in Review: Jun 5 - Jun 13, 2026

Performance Snapshot

This week AlphaWizzard returned +0.6%, essentially matching the S&P 500 (+0.6%) while trailing the Nasdaq's +2.3% surge. With our equity exposure deliberately reduced to 26% mid-week as our model moved into braking mode, the portfolio was structured for protection rather than participation in this week's risk rally. Year-to-date, AlphaWizzard is up +27.4% compared to SPY's +8.8% and QQQ's +17.4%, and since inception we've compounded +37.8% while keeping our maximum drawdown at -8.8% — tighter than both SPY (-9.1%) and QQQ (-11.8%).

The F1 Dashboard

This week the model hit the brakes — hard. Equity exposure dropped from 49% at the start of the week all the way down to 26%, a reduction of 23.0 percentage points. In F1 terms, we've pulled back significantly on the throttle and are now navigating a technically demanding corner: hot inflation data, a looming FOMC decision, and geopolitical volatility all conspired to push our systematic risk signals into defensive territory.

At 26% equity exposure, AlphaWizzard is firmly in BRAKING mode. The majority of the portfolio is parked in cash or cash-equivalents — our pit lane, so to speak — waiting for the track to clear before we accelerate again. This is not a panic reaction; it is exactly what the model is designed to do. When the risk-reward calculus deteriorates, we reduce speed deliberately and methodically. The goal is always the same: protect the lead we've built (+37.8% since inception) and re-engage when conditions improve.

Market Radar

Markets had a lot to digest this week, and inflation remained the dominant theme. Wednesday's CPI report for May 2026 came in hotter than expected, with the all-items index rising 0.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year. Energy was the primary culprit, surging 3.9% in May and accounting for over 60% of the monthly increase. Core CPI — which strips out food and energy — rose a more contained 0.2% for the month and 2.9% year-over-year, but the headline number was enough to keep rate-cut hopes firmly off the table. Thursday's PPI print piled on further: final demand producer prices rose 1.1% in May and an eye-catching 6.5% on a 12-month unadjusted basis — the largest annual surge since November 2022 — with goods prices driving nearly 80% of the advance. This reinforced growing concerns about tariff-driven pipeline inflation working its way through to consumers. On a brighter note, Tuesday's April trade deficit data showed the goods and services gap narrowed to $55.9 billion, coming in below the $56.1 billion consensus estimate and marking a roughly 49% year-to-date improvement compared to a year ago — a tangible early signal that the administration's tariff strategy may be rebalancing trade flows.

Despite the macro headwinds, equity markets managed to end the week in positive territory, driven largely by a strong Friday session. The Nasdaq gained +2.3% on the week, with semiconductors and AI-infrastructure names leading the charge. The SpaceX IPO debut on Friday June 12 lifted broader sentiment across the tech complex, and AMD gained +4.7% on Friday alone, buoyed by AI infrastructure optimism tied to the SpaceX market debut. In our own portfolio, Technology was the standout sector, with our holdings returning +8.0% against the XLK ETF's +2.5% — a +5.5 percentage point outperformance. SNDK surged +27.0% and Micron (MU) bounced +13.6% as the semiconductor space recovered from the prior week's brutal selloff. Ciena (CIEN), however, gave back -8.6% as investors continued to digest concerns around supply chain constraints and market saturation following the company's late-May earnings release. Geopolitics also moved the needle on energy: progress toward a US-Iran nuclear agreement — with reports of a potential signing in Switzerland over the weekend — pushed crude oil down roughly 2% to near $85 per barrel, providing some relief for energy-sensitive consumers.

Heading into next week, the market's eyes are squarely fixed on the June 16–17 FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate has been held steady at 3.50%–3.75% for three consecutive meetings, and this week's hot CPI and PPI data have almost certainly closed the door on any near-term cut. The key question is not whether the Fed moves, but what Chair Warsh signals about the path forward — particularly given the tension between stubborn goods inflation (tariff-driven) and a services sector that is cooling more gently. Any hawkish language around the inflation outlook or a more aggressive dot plot could reprice rate expectations sharply. Friday, June 19 is also Juneteenth — a federal market holiday — so the week will be a four-day session. We approach it fully prepared: the model is already in braking mode, and we have the flexibility to react quickly if conditions shift.

Under the Hood

Top Contributors

Laggards

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Impact is each sector's NAV-weighted EOD impact in percentage points (pp). Σ Impact (+2.46pp) sits above the headline NAV (+0.60pp); the 1.86pp difference reflects cash-sleeve carry, dividends in period, and intraday execution by the daily risk overlay (the model uses end-of-day prices, while live trades happen throughout the day).

Technology was the unambiguous engine of alpha this week. Our Technology holdings returned +8.0% against XLK's +2.5%, a +5.5 percentage point outperformance, and contributed +2.4% to total portfolio return — by far the largest sector contribution. This was driven almost entirely by the semiconductor names: SNDK's +27.0% and MU's +13.6% rebound were exceptional, with TTMI adding another +15.8%. Consumer Cyclical was a modest positive, with our holdings (+2.6%) edging ahead of XLY (+1.5%) and contributing +0.1% to the portfolio. Industrials was the one area of underperformance: the sector ETF (XLI) gained +1.1%, but our Industrials holdings slipped -0.5%, with STRL (-2.7%) and FLEX (-1.5%) both dragging. Given Industrials' relatively small 5.0% weight in the portfolio, the damage was contained at -0.0% contribution, but it is a sector worth watching as tariff-related cost pressures continue to filter through supply chains.

Pit Stop

Each week we put one or more holdings under the spotlight — digging into what drove their performance, what the business does, and why it matters to the portfolio. This week's spotlight is on Viavi Solutions, a quiet but powerful performer that has been one of the portfolio's most remarkable compounders over the past six months.

VIAV - Viavi Solutions Inc

Viavi Solutions gained +12.4% this week, making it one of the portfolio's standout performers over a challenging stretch for the broader market. Viavi is a network and service enablement company — it makes the test, measurement, and assurance equipment that telecom operators and data center builders use to deploy, verify, and maintain high-speed fiber and optical networks. In a world where AI infrastructure demands ever-increasing bandwidth and network reliability, Viavi is a picks-and-shovels beneficiary of the buildout rather than a direct AI play — which means it often catches a bid when data center and fiber capex themes are running hot. Over the past six months, the stock has compounded an extraordinary +209.4%, reflecting a sharp re-rating as investors recognized the company's leverage to the global fiber densification and 5G infrastructure cycle. This week's +12.4% move appeared to be driven by continued momentum from that broader optical/networking theme, which also lifted peers like CIEN, LITE, and VIAV's other network-adjacent neighbors. We entered the position at an average of $50.42 and the current price of $53.46 represents a +6.0% position return — with a substantial portion of the six-month gain captured during the position's holding period.

Week Ahead

The week of June 16–19 is arguably the most consequential macro week of the month — and potentially the quarter. The Federal Reserve takes center stage on Wednesday, and with a market holiday shortening the week to four trading days, every session will carry extra weight.

Portfolio Earnings

No portfolio holdings are scheduled to report this week.

Market Holidays

U.S. markets will be closed on Friday, June 19 in observance of Juneteenth. This makes it a four-day trading week, which compresses any post-FOMC reaction into just Wednesday and Thursday sessions before the long weekend — expect potentially amplified volatility around the Fed announcement.

Key Events

Wednesday's FOMC decision is the week's defining event — and with CPI at +4.2% year-over-year and PPI surging +6.5% annually, the Fed has virtually no room to signal dovish relief. Markets are not pricing in a rate cut, but the FOMC's updated economic projections (the dot plot) and Chair Warsh's press conference tone will set the narrative for the summer. A more hawkish dot plot or explicit references to tariff-driven inflation persistence could reprice equities lower; any hint of patience or acknowledgment that tariff inflation is transitory could provide relief. Our model is already positioned defensively at 26% equity exposure — exactly the right posture heading into a high-uncertainty binary event like this. We remain systematic, we remain patient, and we are ready to accelerate again when the track conditions improve.

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