Week in Review: Jul 3 - Jul 11, 2026

Watch: Jul 6–10, 2026

A short video deep dive on this topic. Prefer to read? The full post is below.

Performance Snapshot

This week AlphaWizzard returned +0.6%, trailing both the S&P 500 (+1.4%) and Nasdaq (+1.8%) as broad benchmarks captured more of the semiconductor rally while our measured 49% exposure kept us partially on the sidelines. Zooming out, the picture remains firmly in our favor: year-to-date we're up +18.8% versus SPY's +10.7% and QQQ's +18.1%, and since inception we've delivered +28.5% against +10.7% for SPY and +15.3% for QQQ. The month-to-date drawdown of -7.4% reflects near-term volatility in our tech-concentrated book, but our disciplined systematic process continues to prioritize durable, risk-adjusted returns over chasing every rally.

The F1 Dashboard

We remain in CRUISING mode this week, holding equity exposure steady at 49% — unchanged from where we started the week. In F1 terms, we're neither hard on the throttle nor braking sharply; we're maintaining a controlled, mid-pack pace while the track conditions stabilize. With major inflation data (CPI, PPI, retail sales) all clustered in the coming week and a hawkish surprise from the June FOMC minutes still fresh in the market's mind, this balanced posture lets us stay invested enough to participate in upside while holding meaningful dry powder should conditions deteriorate. The systematic overlay saw no signal strong enough to accelerate or brake, so we held our line.

Market Radar

Indexes finished modestly higher after a strong post-Independence Day rebound, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately +1.4%, the Nasdaq Composite advancing +1.8%, and the Dow rising +0.6% for the week. The dominant story was semiconductors: stocks rallied after Broadcom extended its long-term chip partnership with Apple, reinforcing confidence that AI infrastructure spending remains robust. The main hard data point was jobless claims, which fell by 2,000 to 215,000 for the week ending July 4, matching forecasts and pointing to a still-stable, 'low-fire' labor market. Notably, the marquee inflation reports were NOT released this week — June CPI lands Tuesday, July 14, followed by PPI and retail sales, all ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.

The information technology sector led the market higher, with the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index rising after two consecutive sessions of losses. Portfolio-relevant moves were plentiful: Micron (MU) surged nearly +5% Thursday after CEO Sanjay Mehrotra announced the company would increase planned U.S. manufacturing and research investment to more than $250 billion through 2035 — an investment announcement, not an earnings report. Western Digital (WDC) gained +9.2% and AMD climbed +8.5% in Monday's tech rebound. On the Fed front, the June 16–17 FOMC minutes released Wednesday delivered a hawkish surprise: officials left the funds rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, removed easing guidance, and nine participants projected a hike in 2026 — though the dollar retreated as hawkish bets failed to build.

Geopolitics added intermittent noise. Renewed U.S.–Iran tensions briefly pushed Brent crude sharply higher midweek, reigniting inflation worries before investors refocused on fundamentals. A NATO summit in Ankara drove defense headlines, while the Russia–Ukraine conflict entered a new phase with drone strikes and fresh diplomacy. Heading into next week, sentiment is cautious but constructive: the market wants confirmation from CPI that inflation isn't re-accelerating, and semiconductors remain the sentiment barometer for the AI-spending thesis.

Under the Hood

Top Contributors

Laggards

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Impact is each sector's NAV-weighted EOD impact in percentage points (pp). Σ Impact (+0.73pp) sits slightly above the headline NAV (+0.60pp); the 0.13pp difference reflects cash-sleeve carry, dividends in period, and intraday execution by the daily risk overlay (the model uses end-of-day prices, while live trades happen throughout the day).

Technology remains the engine of the portfolio at 49.1% weight, and our holdings delivered +1.5% versus the XLK ETF's +1.2% — a +0.3% outperformance and the primary driver of the week's +0.7% sector contribution. The strength was concentrated in storage and optical names: STX (+11.0%), LITE (+10.1%), and SNDK (+9.8%) rode the semiconductor rebound and AI-infrastructure enthusiasm sparked by the Broadcom–Apple partnership and Micron's investment announcement. Offsetting some of that upside were the laggards within the same sector — BE (-9.7%), INTC (-8.7%), and TTMI (-6.1%) — a reminder that even within a winning theme, dispersion is high. On balance, our stock selection added value above the passive benchmark, and the concentration in AI-adjacent hardware continues to define both our upside and our short-term volatility.

Pit Stop

Each week we pull one holding into the pit lane for a closer look — what it does, why it moved, and how it fits our systematic thesis.

LITE - Lumentum Holdings Inc

Week: +10.1% | MTD: -6.5% | 6M: +141.8%

Lumentum is a leading designer and manufacturer of optical and photonic products — the laser and transceiver components that power high-speed data center interconnects, a critical piece of AI infrastructure buildout. Shares jumped +10.1% this week as the broad semiconductor and optical rally lifted the group, with confidence in sustained AI-driven capital spending reinforced by the Broadcom–Apple partnership extension and Micron's massive U.S. investment plans. While our position is currently down -8.5% from an average entry of $876.84, the six-month picture is striking: LITE is up +141.8%, underscoring the structural tailwind behind optical networking demand. This week's move helped the name contribute +0.3% to portfolio performance.

Week Ahead

The upcoming week is dense with high-impact catalysts, headlined by the June inflation data that markets have been waiting on and a portfolio holding stepping up to report earnings.

Portfolio Earnings

STX — our top contributor this week (+11.0%) — reports after market close on Thursday, July 16, with consensus EPS of $5.13. As a core storage holding riding the AI data-infrastructure theme, its print and guidance will be a meaningful read on demand for high-capacity drives.

Key Events

This is a pivotal data week: June CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, and retail sales alongside jobless claims on Thursday all land ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. With the June minutes revealing a hawkish tilt and nine participants projecting a 2026 hike, these inflation prints will heavily influence rate expectations.

Our systematic process is built precisely for weeks like this — we don't attempt to predict the CPI number, we let the data and our risk signals dictate positioning. Holding steady at 49% exposure in CRUISING mode, we retain the flexibility to accelerate or brake as the inflation picture clarifies and STX's earnings land. We'll stay disciplined, stay diversified within our AI-infrastructure thesis, and let the model do the driving.

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