Week in Review: Feb 27 - Mar 7, 2026

Performance Snapshot

This week proved challenging for AlphaWizzard, declining -7.4% compared to the S&P 500's -2.0% and Nasdaq's -1.2% as our concentrated positions faced headwinds from sector-specific weakness and geopolitical volatility. Despite this week's underperformance, our year-to-date return of +12.8% continues to significantly outpace both SPY (-1.4%) and QQQ (-2.4%), while our inception-to-date performance of +22.1% demonstrates the strength of our systematic approach over time.

The F1 Dashboard

Our systematic risk management responded decisively to deteriorating market conditions, with equity exposure dropping from 83% to 54% - a substantial -29.0% reduction that shifted us into CRUISING mode. This automatic braking mechanism reflects our models detecting increased volatility and risk across multiple factors, positioning the portfolio more defensively as economic data disappointed and geopolitical tensions escalated. In F1 terms, we've eased off the accelerator and are navigating the current market turbulence with increased caution.

Market Radar

This week delivered a perfect storm of negative catalysts that sent markets into risk-off mode. The February jobs report on Friday proved disastrous, with only 58,000 payrolls added versus the 130,000 consensus - a dramatic 72,000 miss that raised serious questions about economic momentum. Meanwhile, January's Producer Price Index rose 0.5% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, reigniting Fed hawkishness concerns just as the central bank entered its quiet period ahead of the March 18-19 FOMC meeting.

Geopolitical tensions reached a fever pitch as US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on March 2, triggered Iran's declaration of 'total war' against the US and Israel. Oil markets went haywire, with Brent crude surging from ~$70 to over $80 per barrel (up nearly 30% year-to-date) as the Strait of Hormuz - which handles 20% of global oil flows - saw ~150 ships anchored due to disruptions. Technology and materials stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure, while defensive sectors showed relative resilience.

Sentiment heading into next week remains fragile, with investors focused on whether the jobs weakness represents a temporary blip or signals broader economic deceleration. The combination of sticky inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and growth concerns has created a challenging backdrop that our risk management systems are actively navigating.

Under the Hood

Top Contributors

Laggards

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Contribution shows impact on total portfolio return.

This week showcased the double-edged nature of concentrated stock picking during market stress. Technology was our largest detractor, with our holdings declining -14.8% versus the sector ETF's -1.1% decline, contributing -4.5% to portfolio performance as semiconductor names like LITE (-20.3%) and SNDK (-17.0%) faced severe selling pressure. Basic Materials also underperformed significantly, with our picks down -13.5% versus XLB's -6.6% drop, adding another -4.0% headwind. Our Financial Services holdings showed more resilience, declining only -2.4% versus XLF's -1.7%, while Industrials matched sector performance. The concentrated nature of our approach amplified sector-specific weakness this week, highlighting why our risk management systems appropriately reduced exposure.

Pit Stop

This week's spotlight focuses on our top contributor, which demonstrated the defensive characteristics that helped cushion portfolio performance during a volatile period.

RTX - Raytheon Technologies Corp

Week: +3.5% | MTD: +3.5% | 6M: +36.0%

RTX emerged as our standout performer this week, gaining +3.5% while most holdings faced significant pressure. The aerospace and defense giant benefited from the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as investors rotated into defense contractors amid the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran's declaration of 'total war.' RTX's diversified portfolio spanning commercial aerospace, defense systems, and intelligence solutions positions it well during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. The company's strong 6-month performance of +36.0% reflects both the ongoing global defense spending cycle and recovery in commercial aviation demand, making it a key defensive anchor in our portfolio.

Week Ahead

The coming week brings limited earnings from our holdings but significant economic data that could influence Fed policy and market direction.

Portfolio Earnings

No portfolio holdings are scheduled to report this week.

Key Events

Friday's data dump will be crucial, with GDP revisions and inflation expectations taking center stage following this week's disappointing jobs report. Our systematic approach remains well-positioned to respond to any shifts in economic momentum or Fed policy expectations, with our reduced equity exposure providing flexibility to capitalize on opportunities or further reduce risk as conditions evolve.