Week in Review: Feb 13 - Feb 21, 2026

Performance Snapshot

This week AlphaWizzard returned +3.1%, substantially outperforming both the S&P 500 (+1.1%) and Nasdaq (+1.1%) by 200 basis points. Year-to-date performance remains exceptionally strong at +18.4% compared to SPY's +1.1% and QQQ's -0.9%. Our systematic approach continues to deliver alpha while maintaining disciplined risk management, with a maximum drawdown of -6.2% versus -7.3% for the Nasdaq.

The F1 Dashboard

The F1 Dashboard maintained its ACCELERATING stance this week with 83% equity exposure, unchanged from the previous week. In ACCELERATING mode, our systematic models are identifying favorable risk-adjusted opportunities across our core sectors, justifying high exposure to equities. This positioning reflects our quantitative assessment that market conditions continue to support aggressive capital allocation, with momentum and fundamental factors aligning positively across our technology, industrials, and materials holdings.

Market Radar

Financial markets contended with conflicting economic signals this week amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy direction. Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data served as the primary market driver, registering 0.4% month-over-month against consensus estimates of 0.3%. This upside surprise was accompanied by disappointing Q4 GDP growth of 1.4%, falling well short of the 3.0% Wall Street forecast. However, manufacturing activity showed resilience, with the Philadelphia Fed Index jumping to 16.3—significantly above the 10.0 consensus—indicating sustained momentum in the sector despite prevailing macroeconomic challenges. These divergent data points underscore the complexity of the current economic environment as markets continue to assess the trajectory of growth and monetary policy.

Wednesday's FOMC minutes disclosed increasing disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy direction, with several members indicating openness to additional rate increases should inflation remain persistent. The hawkish tone initially pressured technology equities, though the sector staged a notable recovery following Friday's Supreme Court decision. The Court's 6-3 ruling striking down Trump's emergency tariffs provided meaningful relief to semiconductor and networking equipment companies, which had faced headwinds from prolonged trade policy uncertainty.

Market sentiment entering the week displays measured optimism, though ongoing inflationary pressures continue to shape investment decision-making across asset classes. The Supreme Court's recent tariff decision has eliminated immediate trade policy uncertainty, providing markets with enhanced visibility on regulatory frameworks. Administrative responses to this ruling will serve as a key monitoring point for the remainder of the period. Manufacturing sector strength reinforces our view that core corporate fundamentals maintain their resilience despite broader economic headwinds. Next week's economic calendar—featuring jobless claims and producer price index releases—will offer critical insights into the economy's capacity to sustain growth trajectories while navigating persistent inflation dynamics.

Under the Hood

Top Contributors

Laggards

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Contribution shows impact on total portfolio return.

Technology led portfolio performance this week, contributing +2.0% to total returns as our holdings significantly outperformed the XLK sector ETF by 490 basis points. Industrial holdings also delivered strong alpha with +5.0% returns versus XLI's +1.8%, adding +0.7% to portfolio performance. Even in the challenged Basic Materials sector, where XLB fell -0.7%, our systematic stock selection generated positive +1.4% returns and contributed +0.6% to the portfolio. The standout sector rotation story was Consumer Defensive, where we outperformed XLP by 460 basis points despite the sector's -1.8% decline, demonstrating the power of individual security selection over broad sector exposure.

Earnings Scorecard

Our portfolio companies delivered strong quarterly results with three clean beats and one mixed outcome. CDE's impressive beat on both EPS (+21% vs estimate) and revenue (+8% vs estimate) helped fuel its +9.9% weekly gain and +0.5% portfolio contribution. IAG also delivered solid beats across both metrics, while GH managed to beat despite a loss, showing improvement versus expectations. AU's mixed result reflected strong EPS execution but slight revenue miss, demonstrating the challenging operating environment for some sectors.

Pit Stop

This week we're highlighting one of our top contributors that exemplifies our systematic approach to identifying technology leaders positioned for structural growth.

CIEN - Ciena Corp

Week: +10.2% | MTD: +33.0% | 6M: +269.1%

Ciena delivered exceptional performance this week, contributing +0.5% to portfolio returns as the networking equipment leader continued its remarkable run. The company specializes in high-capacity optical networking solutions that enable the backbone infrastructure for cloud computing, 5G networks, and artificial intelligence workloads. This week's surge was driven by growing recognition that Ciena's coherent optical technology is becoming mission-critical as hyperscalers and telecom operators upgrade networks to handle AI-driven data traffic. The Supreme Court's tariff ruling provided additional tailwinds by reducing supply chain uncertainty for technology hardware companies. With 6-month returns of +269.1%, Ciena exemplifies our systematic ability to identify infrastructure plays positioned at the intersection of multiple technology megatrends.

Week Ahead

The coming week brings a mix of portfolio earnings and key economic data that could influence our systematic positioning decisions.

Portfolio Earnings

Monster Beverage reports Thursday after market close with consensus expecting $0.49 EPS, while Royal Bank of Canada kicks off Thursday morning with $3.96 EPS estimates. Both holdings represent our systematic selection of quality companies with strong fundamentals in their respective sectors.

Key Events

The week ahead features two critical economic releases that will inform our investment positioning. Friday's Producer Price Index (month-over-month) represents the period's most significant data point, offering real-time visibility into producer-side inflationary pressures. Thursday's jobless claims data will provide complementary insight into labor market resilience, further clarifying the economic backdrop. Our systematic models will integrate these macroeconomic inputs with technical and fundamental analysis to dynamically optimize equity exposure and sector allocation across the portfolio.