Week in Review: Apr 10 - Apr 18, 2026

Performance Snapshot

This week AlphaWizzard returned +0.5%, underperforming the S&P 500's strong +4.5% rally and Nasdaq's impressive +6.2% surge. However, year-to-date we maintain a commanding +18.0% return compared to SPY's +4.1% and QQQ's +5.6%, demonstrating the value of our systematic approach over longer time horizons. Our maximum drawdown discipline remains intact at -8.8%, providing better downside protection than both benchmarks.

The F1 Dashboard

AlphaWizzard remains in BRAKING mode with equity exposure steady at 18% throughout the week. This defensive positioning reflects our systematic models' assessment of elevated market risks, keeping us well-protected with significant cash reserves while selectively participating in high-conviction opportunities. Like an F1 driver approaching a challenging corner, we're maintaining measured speed rather than accelerating into uncertainty.

Market Radar

Markets delivered a powerful rally this week despite concerning inflation data that should have spooked investors. The CPI report showed a pronounced shock with headline inflation surging from 0.3% to 0.9% month-over-month, while year-over-year inflation jumped a full percentage point from 2.4% to 3.4%. Producer prices also accelerated, with PPI increasing 0.5% in March and the 12-month advance of 4.0% marking the largest increase since February 2023.

Technology stocks led the charge higher, with the Nasdaq posting its best week in months as investors seemed to shrug off inflation concerns. Growth sectors like Consumer Cyclical (+6.7%) and Technology (+8.2%) posted strong gains, while defensive sectors like Basic Materials (-0.2%) and Energy (-3.4%) lagged. The market's ability to rally in the face of deteriorating inflation metrics suggests either overwhelming optimism or complacency about the Fed's response.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated as Iran maintains threats to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. However, energy equities declined this week following President-elect Trump's comments suggesting a near-term resolution to the conflict. Defense contractor earnings scheduled for next week are generating positive investor sentiment in the sector. Meanwhile, recent inflation data has introduced uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policy trajectory, potentially pressuring longer-term institutional positioning as market participants recalibrate their monetary policy expectations.

Under the Hood

Top Contributors

Laggards

Sector Performance

Here's how the major sectors performed this week and how our stock picks in each sector compared to the sector ETFs:

*Our Return is the weighted average of portfolio holdings in each sector. Contribution shows impact on total portfolio return.

Our sector allocation showed mixed results against benchmarks this week. Technology was our largest contributor at +0.31% despite underperforming the sector ETF by -4.4%, as our memory and storage holdings lagged the broader tech rally. Financial Services was a bright spot, with our picks outperforming the sector by +2.6% and delivering +0.06% contribution. Energy continued to weigh on performance, with our holdings underperforming the already-weak energy sector by -1.8%. The dispersion in sector performance highlights the importance of stock selection, as even strong sectors like Technology saw our holdings lag while we outperformed in more challenging sectors like Financials.

Pit Stop

This week we're spotlighting one of our top performers that exemplifies the opportunities our systematic approach identifies in overlooked sectors.

STX - Seagate Technology PLC

Week: +8.9% | MTD: +39.8% | 6M: +155.5%

Seagate continued its exceptional run this week with another +8.9% gain, bringing its month-to-date performance to a stunning +39.8%. The data storage giant has been a portfolio standout, delivering +155.5% returns over the past six months as AI demand drives enterprise storage needs higher. Seagate manufactures hard disk drives and solid-state drives essential for data centers supporting AI workloads, positioning it perfectly for the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout. Recent quarters have seen accelerating demand from cloud providers and enterprise customers upgrading storage capacity, with the company benefiting from both higher volumes and improved pricing power in a consolidated market.

Week Ahead

Next week brings earnings from two of our defense holdings and a packed Thursday of economic data that could influence Fed policy expectations.

Portfolio Earnings

Both defense contractors report Tuesday morning, with investors focused on defense spending trends and potential contract wins amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. RTX faces questions about its commercial aerospace recovery while NOC benefits from strong government demand for advanced defense systems.

Key Events

Following this week's inflation surprise, Thursday's economic data releases will be particularly significant for market direction. Key PMI readings and jobless claims data are expected to provide critical insights into underlying economic momentum and labor market conditions. Our systematic models continue to incorporate these fundamental inputs while maintaining a defensive portfolio stance. We remain positioned for capital preservation until our quantitative framework signals that market conditions support a transition from our current risk-off posture to a more aggressive growth allocation.

Weekly positioning, performance vs benchmarks, and what's ahead. Every Sunday.