Monthly Review: March 2026

Performance Snapshot

AlphaWizzard posted a -5.2% return in March, matching the S&P 500's performance while trailing the Nasdaq by 20 basis points. The challenging market environment triggered our risk overlay systems, which implemented aggressive defensive protocols throughout the month. Despite the March decline, AlphaWizzard's year-to-date alpha generation remains strong at +19.8 percentage points relative to the S&P 500 benchmark, demonstrating the strategy's continued outperformance in volatile equity market conditions.

The F1 Dashboard

Current equity exposure: 18%. Mode: Braking.

What Happened in Markets

March 2026 proved to be a turbulent month for global equity markets, with the S&P 500 declining -5.2% and the Nasdaq falling -5%. Market volatility intensified as concerns over persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and shifting monetary policy expectations weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Technology stocks, despite their recent resilience, faced renewed pressure from rising interest rate expectations and valuation concerns, contributing to the broader market decline.

Our portfolio composition, heavily weighted toward technology (8 positions) and industrials (5 positions), faced headwinds during this correction. The technology sector experienced particular stress as investors rotated away from growth-oriented names amid uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's next moves. Industrial names also struggled as economic growth concerns intensified, though our defensive pivot helped mitigate some of the downside exposure.

During March's volatile market conditions, our proprietary risk overlay system executed as intended, systematically reducing portfolio exposure from 83% to 18% throughout the month. While this defensive positioning could not entirely insulate the strategy from prevailing market weakness, it successfully preserved capital and positioned the portfolio to capitalize on future opportunities as conditions normalize. The month's performance underscored the effectiveness of our quantitative methodology during periods of heightened volatility. Year-to-date, the strategy has outperformed major benchmarks by nearly 20 percentage points, demonstrating the value of our systematic approach to risk management. March's market decline provided a comprehensive stress test of our three-pillar investment framework. The results validated both the responsiveness of our dynamic risk management protocols and the durability of our fundamental stock selection process under adverse conditions.

Monthly Top Performers

Energy and basic materials positions provided relative strength during the market decline, while our defensive positioning limited overall portfolio volatility.

Pillar 1: Stock Universe Update

Our quantitative screening process identified compelling opportunities across multiple sectors as market volatility created attractive entry points for high-quality names. The algorithm continues to prioritize companies with strong fundamental metrics and favorable technical positioning.

Notable Shifts

• Technology Infrastructure: Increased focus on semiconductor equipment and measurement solutions providers
• Industrial Recovery: Enhanced screening for logistics, aerospace, and construction companies with strong margins
• Energy Transition: Continued emphasis on renewable energy infrastructure and traditional energy value plays
• Automotive Innovation: Targeting both traditional automakers and specialty component manufacturers
• Defensive Quality: Prioritizing companies with strong balance sheets and consistent cash generation

Pillar 2: Portfolio Changes

End of March saw significant portfolio restructuring as we added 10 new positions while closing 9 underperforming holdings. This refresh maintains our disciplined approach to position management while adapting to evolving market dynamics. Notably, New Gold Inc. (NGD) completed its final trading session on March 20th following its successful acquisition by Coeur Mining.

New Positions

• AMAT (Applied Materials Inc) — Technology | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials. Leading provider of materials engineering solutions with dominant market position in chip manufacturing equipment. Market Cap: $271B, Profit Margin: 27.8%, Revenue Growth: -2.1%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +42%, ROE 38.9%
• FDX (FedEx Corporation) — Industrials | Integrated Freight & Logistics. Global logistics leader benefiting from e-commerce growth and operational efficiency improvements. Market Cap: $85B, Profit Margin: 4.9%, Revenue Growth: +13.9%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +19%, Analyst Consensus 70% Buy/Strong Buy
• GM (General Motors Company) — Consumer Cyclical | Auto Manufacturers. Traditional automaker with strong EV transition strategy and attractive valuation metrics. Market Cap: $69B, Profit Margin: 1.5%, EPS Growth (Fwd): 324.6%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +325%
• KEYS (Keysight Technologies Inc) — Technology | Scientific & Technical Instruments. Electronic design and test solutions provider with strong growth in 5G and automotive markets. Market Cap: $48B, Profit Margin: 17.0%, Revenue Growth: +23.3%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +80%, Analyst Consensus 85% Buy/Strong Buy
• MOD (Modine Manufacturing Company) — Consumer Cyclical | Auto Parts. Thermal management solutions specialist experiencing strong demand from EV and data center markets. Market Cap: $11B, EPS Growth (Fwd): 300.6%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +301%, PEG 1.00
• MTZ (MasTec Inc) — Industrials | Engineering & Construction. Infrastructure specialist positioned to benefit from renewable energy and telecom buildouts. Market Cap: $25B, Revenue Growth: +15.8%, EPS Growth (Fwd): 109.8%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +110%, Analyst Consensus 82% Buy/Strong Buy
• NOC (Northrop Grumman Corporation) — Industrials | Aerospace & Defense. Defense contractor with strong cash generation and exposure to space and cybersecurity growth. Market Cap: $97B, Profit Margin: 10.0%, ROE: 26.2%. Highlight: ROE 26.2%, Operating Margin 16.5%
• NXT (Nextracker Inc) — Technology | Solar. Leading solar tracker technology provider benefiting from utility-scale solar deployment acceleration. Market Cap: $18B, Profit Margin: 16.4%, Revenue Growth: +33.9%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +23%, ROE 33.2%
• VLO (Valero Energy Corporation) — Energy | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Diversified refiner with strong operational efficiency and attractive dividend yield. Market Cap: $74B, EPS Growth (Fwd): 93.4%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +93%, Dividend Yield 1.8%
• XOM (Exxon Mobil Corp) — Energy | Oil & Gas Integrated. Integrated energy giant with disciplined capital allocation and strong free cash flow generation. Market Cap: $707B, Profit Margin: 8.9%, Dividend Yield: 2.33%. Highlight: Fwd EPS Growth +37%, Analyst Consensus 61% Buy/Strong Buy

Positions Closed

We closed positions in AU, BMO, BNS, CDE, JCI, MNST, NEM, RY, and TTMI due to deteriorating technical indicators, reduced fundamental attractiveness, or portfolio optimization requirements. These exits align with our disciplined approach to capital preservation during volatile periods.

Positions Maintained

Ten core positions were maintained throughout March's volatility: ATI, CM, IAG, LITE, MU, RIO, RTX, SNDK, STX, and WDC. These holdings continue to meet our quantitative criteria and provide diversification across key sectors including technology, industrials, basic materials, and financial services.

Pillar 3: Risk Overlay in Action

March Exposure Journey

March witnessed one of our most dramatic risk overlay interventions to date, as equity exposure plummeted from 83% to 18% - a massive 65.1 percentage point reduction. The journey began in early March when our technical indicators started flashing warning signals across multiple timeframes, prompting an initial reduction to approximately 54% exposure. As market volatility intensified mid-month, our volatility-adjusted models triggered further defensive protocols.

The final phase of our defensive positioning came during the last week of March, when our momentum indicators confirmed a broader market breakdown was underway. Rather than hoping for a reversal, our systematic approach continued reducing exposure, ultimately settling at 18% - one of our lowest readings since inception. This aggressive capital preservation move proved prescient as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined over 5%, validating our quantitative risk management framework's ability to protect capital during challenging periods.

“Our risk overlay doesn't predict market direction - it responds to what markets are telling us through price action, volatility, and momentum. March was a masterclass in systematic capital preservation.”

Looking Ahead

As we enter April, AlphaWizzard remains positioned defensively but ready to capitalize on opportunities as market conditions evolve. Our three-pillar framework continues operating at full capacity, continuously scanning for the next acceleration opportunity while maintaining disciplined risk management.

The Three Pillars Remain Active

• Stock Universe: Screening 3,000+ names daily for quantitative opportunities across all market conditions
• Portfolio Construction: Maintaining optimal 15-30 stock concentration while adapting position weights dynamically
• Risk Overlay: Ready to shift from braking to acceleration mode as market stress indicators normalize
• Defensive Positioning: Current 18% equity exposure provides significant dry powder for future deployment
• Quality Focus: Emphasizing companies with strong fundamentals and technical momentum for the next cycle

Key Themes

• Technology Infrastructure: AMAT, KEYS, LITE, MU, SNDK, STX, WDC positioning for semiconductor recovery
• Industrial Strength: ATI, FDX, MTZ, NOC, RTX leveraging infrastructure and defense spending
• Energy Positioning: VLO, XOM providing inflation hedges and cash flow stability
• Materials & Mining: IAG, RIO offering commodity exposure and global growth leverage
• Automotive Innovation: GM, MOD capturing EV transition and component demand
• Financial Diversification: CM providing international banking exposure with attractive yield

Why Copy AlphaWizzard?

• Quantitative Edge: Systematic screening of 3,000+ stocks daily using proprietary algorithms that identify opportunities human analysis might miss
• Dynamic Risk Management: F1-inspired risk overlay system that shifts between aggressive growth and capital preservation based on real-time market conditions
• Concentrated Quality: 15-30 stock portfolio focusing on highest-conviction opportunities rather than index-hugging diversification
• Institutional Approach: Professional-grade strategy with transparent methodology and disciplined execution, typically available only to large institutions
• Adaptive Positioning: Proven ability to reduce equity exposure from 83% to 18% when markets deteriorate, protecting capital for future opportunities
• Strong Track Record: 15.16% YTD returns despite March volatility, significantly outperforming major benchmarks over multiple time horizons
• Technology Focus: Deep expertise in high-growth sectors including semiconductors, renewable energy, and industrial automation
• Complete Transparency: Weekly and Monthly detailed updates explaining every position, trade, and strategic decision with full performance attribution

Weekly positioning, performance vs benchmarks, and what's ahead. Every Sunday.