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Statistical Edges

Market Edges - Jan 28, 2026

January 28, 2026Veloris Capital
Market Edges - Jan 28, 2026
Edge 1

S&P 500 breadth breakout: 12.7% stocks at 52-week highs after year+ absence

3-4 weeks later
Alignment: 9/10
S&P 500 breadth breakout: 12.7% stocks at 52-week highs after year+ absence
Statistical Edge
Condition
12.7% of S&P 500 stocks hit 52-week highs for the first time in over a year
Outcome
SPX finishes higher
Probability
100% (every past case)
Timeframe
3-4 weeks later
Historical Basis: Historical analysis of past cases (specific period not mentioned)
Edge Strength
Very Low Confidence
3/10
Weak Edge ~8% annualized

-6% below base rate

When 12.7% of S&P 500 stocks hit 52-week highs for the first time in over a year, SPX has historically finished higher 3-4 weeks later in every past occurrence.


How We Use Market Edges

These quantitative patterns serve as supporting context rather than trading triggers. Our portfolio exposure is never determined by individual statistical edges—instead, it's systematically governed by our Risk Overlay, a framework of over 20 data-driven indicators that collectively determine when market conditions favor acceleration versus caution.

When edges like these align with our overlay readings, they provide additional conviction for our current positioning. When they diverge, our disciplined process prioritizes the systematic signals over any single statistical pattern.

Important: Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk. CFDs are complex instruments. 61% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with eToro.

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