Market Edges - Jan 23, 2026
SPX within 1% of 1000-point marks shows strong forward returns
+24% edge (~31% annualized) — needs more data
When SPX trades within 1% of major 1000-point levels, it shows 86% probability of gains over 1-3 months and 100% positive returns over 1 year with +16.29% average gains.
SPX 30%+ gain in 8+ months with breadth thrusts leads to continued outperformance
+19% edge (~10% annualized) — needs more data
When SPX gains 30%+ in 8+ months accompanied by breadth thrusts and rapid volatility reversals, the following year shows positive returns 92%+ of the time with double-digit average gains.
How We Use Market Edges
These quantitative patterns serve as supporting context rather than trading triggers. Our portfolio exposure is never determined by individual statistical edges—instead, it's systematically governed by our Risk Overlay, a framework of over 20 data-driven indicators that collectively determine when market conditions favor acceleration versus caution.
When edges like these align with our overlay readings, they provide additional conviction for our current positioning. When they diverge, our disciplined process prioritizes the systematic signals over any single statistical pattern.
Important: Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk. CFDs are complex instruments. 61% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with eToro.