Market Edges - Feb 4, 2026
S&P 500 Strong January Start Predicts Full Year Performance
+19% edge (~10% annualized) — needs more data
When S&P 500 is up >1% in first 5 days AND January is positive, the full year is higher 92% of the time with 18%+ average gains.
How We Use Market Edges
These quantitative patterns serve as supporting context rather than trading triggers. Our portfolio exposure is never determined by individual statistical edges—instead, it's systematically governed by our Risk Overlay, a framework of over 20 data-driven indicators that collectively determine when market conditions favor acceleration versus caution.
When edges like these align with our overlay readings, they provide additional conviction for our current positioning. When they diverge, our disciplined process prioritizes the systematic signals over any single statistical pattern.
Important: Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk. CFDs are complex instruments. 61% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with eToro.